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The impact of Brexit news on British pound exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Korus

    (EIIW at the University of Wuppertal
    Schumpeter School of Business and Economics)

  • Kaan Celebi

    (Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences)

Abstract

Using event-study techniques, we investigate the impact of Brexit-related events on the spot exchange rate of the British pound against the euro and the US dollar. We want to find out whether Brexit-related news, including the Brexit referendum itself, has an impact on British pound exchange rates. By splitting our Brexit-related events into ‘good’ Brexit news and ‘bad’ Brexit news, we find that Brexit news has an impact on British pound exchange rates. Bad Brexit news is associated with a depreciation of the British pound against the euro and the US dollar whereas ‘good’ Brexit news appreciates the Pound against the euro. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that market participants display a delayed reaction to bad Brexit news. As the referendum has clearly a significant impact on both British pound/euro and British pound/US dollar exchange rate volatility, the impact of Brexit news is only for the British pound/euro exchange rate volatility measurable. Besides the asymmetric volatility pattern towards positive and negative shocks in general, we find that the statistically significance and the magnitude of the impact of good Brexit news is higher than these of bad Brexit news. Concerning the British pound/US dollar exchange rate volatility, our results display a weak presence of volatility asymmetry in terms of shocks and good/bad Brexit news, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Korus & Kaan Celebi, 2019. "The impact of Brexit news on British pound exchange rates," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 161-192, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-018-00423-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-018-00423-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaan Celebi, 2021. "Quo Vadis, Britain? – Implications of the Brexit process on the UK’s real economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 267-307, May.
    2. Afonso, António & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    4. Sindri Engilbertsson & Gylfi Zoega, 2020. "The Effect of Brexit on the UK Economy (So Far)," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Capitalism, Global Change and Sustainable Development, pages 111-139, Springer.
    5. Olaniran, Abeeb & Akanni, Lateef & Salisu, Afees, 2024. "Migration fears and exchange rate volatility in France, Germany, and the UK: A GARCH-MIDAS framework," MPRA Paper 123196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wei Guo & Zhongfei Chen, 2023. "China–US economic and trade relations, trade news, and short‐term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 180-203, February.
    7. Federico Carril-Caccia, 2020. "Will the Future EU-UK Free Trade Agreement Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(4), pages 266-270, July.
    8. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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