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A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets

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  • Cavicchioli, Maddalena

Abstract

We propose a new method to compute various impulse response functions (IRF) for a Markov switching VAR model in terms of neat matrix expressions in closed form. The key is to derive a suitable closed form representation for Markov switching VAR models using a state-space representation. By this representation, the IRF analysis can be processed with respect to either an asymmetric discrete or a symmetric continuous shocks. A simulation study demonstrates the actual advantages of the proposed matrix methodology. To illustrate the feasibility and the usefulness of our approach, we present empirical applications to oil and natural gas markets showing the relevance of accommodating asymmetries in the relationship between their price shocks and economic activities.

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  • Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:29:y:2024:i:c:s1703494923000610
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2023.e00349
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impulse response function; Markov switching; Natural gas market; Oil price shocks; State-space representation; Vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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