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CHANGES IN THE INFLATION PROCESS IN CANADA: Evidence and Implications

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  • Doug Hostland

Abstract

The Canadian economy is currently in transition from a period of disinflation to one with a very low and relatively stable inflation rate. Against this background, the author asks whether reduced-form parameters should be expected to be invariant to changes in the inflation process. This raises two empirical issues. The first relates to whether shifts in the Canadian inflation process can be identified over time. It appears so, since casual observation as well as various statistical procedures indicate that there was a unique period from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s when inflation was low and relatively stable. The second issue relates to whether there is evidence that parameter instability corresponds to shifts in the inflation regime. Statistical tests indicate that parameter instability is an important concern in reduced-form models of the inflation process, particularly for the early 1970s. The evidence for Canada suggests that inflation forecasts from reduced-form models may be unreliable in the presence of important changes in the inflation process.

Suggested Citation

  • Doug Hostland, 1995. "CHANGES IN THE INFLATION PROCESS IN CANADA: Evidence and Implications," Macroeconomics 9508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9508001
    Note: 42 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leo Butler, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada.
    2. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, 1998. "Análisis del comportamiento de la inflación trimestral en Colombia bajo cambios de régimen: Una evidencia a través del modelo "Switching" de Hamilton," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, November.
    3. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2008. "Inflation regimes and inflation expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 229-243.
    4. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Oleg KITOV & Ivan KITOV, 2012. "A Win-Win Monetary Policy In Canada," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(6(18)/ Su), pages 160-176.
    6. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha MisasA., 2005. "Analisis Delcomportamiento De La Inflacíon Trimestral En Colombia Bajo Cambios De Regimen: Una Evidencia A Traves Del Modelo," Borradores de Economia 1993, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada," MPRA Paper 5015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jean-François Fillion & André Léonard, 1997. "La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses," Staff Working Papers 97-3, Bank of Canada.
    9. Guy Debelle, 1996. "The Ends of Three Small Inflations: Australia, New Zealand and Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 22(1), pages 56-78, March.

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