IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upf/upfgen/166.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Canova
  • Eva Ortega

Abstract

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibration exercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of the procedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particular reference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide an overview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problem and compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--linear dynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated model to the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standard problem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether a model with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate saving and aggregate investment in an open economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Canova & Eva Ortega, 1996. "Testing calibrated general equilibrium models," Economics Working Papers 166, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/166.pdf
    File Function: Whole Paper
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kydland, Finn E., 1992. "On the econometrics of world business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 476-482, April.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 433-451.
    3. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
    4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    5. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 123-144, Suppl. De.
    6. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    8. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-1041, December.
    9. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
    10. repec:bla:scandj:v:93:y:1991:i:2:p:161-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-396, March.
    12. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444606, September.
    13. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    14. Simkins, Scott P., 1994. "Do real business cycle models really exhibit business cycle behavior?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 381-404, April.
    15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    16. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    18. Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1987. "Calibration as Estimation," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275210, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    19. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    20. repec:bla:scandj:v:93:y:1991:i:2:p:129-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Gali Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June.
    22. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Nason, James M & Cogley, Timothy, 1994. "Testing the Implications of Long-Run Neutrality for Monetary Business Cycle Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 37-70, Suppl. De.
    24. Baxter, Marianne, 1991. "Approximating suboptimal dynamic equilibria : An Euler equation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 173-200, October.
    25. repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:37-38:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Novales, Alfonso, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models: A Stochastic Equilibrium Model of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 93-111, January.
    27. Danthine, J.P. & Donaldson, J.B., 1993. "Non-Walrassian Economies," Papers 93-02, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    28. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    29. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444590, September.
    30. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 1995. "The equity premium and the risk free rate: A cross country, cross maturity examination," Economics Working Papers 136, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    31. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
    32. Jordi Gali, 1995. "Non-Walrasian Unemployment Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-436, June.
    34. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
    35. Pagan, Adrian, 1994. "Calibration and Econometric Research: An Overview: Introduction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 1-10, Suppl. De.
    36. Finn E. Kydland (ed.), 1995. "Business Cycle Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 565.
    37. Canova, Fabio, 1995. "Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 477-501, May.
    38. Albert Marcet, 1991. "Simulation analysis of dynamic stochastic models: Applications to theory and estimation," Economics Working Papers 6, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    39. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "The Interaction Between Theory and Observation in Economics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9223, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    40. DeJong, David N & Ingram, Beth Fisher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Bayesian Approach to Calibration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January.
    41. Wilbur John Coleman, 1989. "An algorithm to solve dynamic models," International Finance Discussion Papers 351, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Curtis J. Eberwein & Tryphon Kollintzas, 1995. "A Dynamic Model of Bargaining in a Unionized Firm with Irreversible Investment," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 37-38, pages 91-115.
    43. Feve, Patrick & Langot, Francois, 1994. "The RBC Models through Statistical Inference: An Application with French Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 11-35, Suppl. De.
    44. Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Cyclical Properties of a Real Business Cycle Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 113-122, Suppl. De.
    45. Albert Marcet, 1991. "Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production," Economics Working Papers 5, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
    2. Stephen Drinkwater & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "The Immigration Surplus Revisited In A General Equilibrium Model With Endogenous Growth," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 569-601, August.
    3. Alfonso Novales, 2000. "The role of simulation methods in Macroeconomics," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 155-181.
    4. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Jagjit Chadha & Qi Sun, 2010. "Productivity, Preferences and UIP Deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 365-391, July.
    5. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2005. "Money and Monetary Policy in Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," CDMA Working Paper Series 200511, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 Feb 2007.
    6. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 2007/197, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money and Monetary Policy in DSGE Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 78, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    9. Marco Maffezzoli, 2000. "Human Capital and International Real Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 137-165, January.
    10. Matteo Manera & Bruno Sitzia, 2005. "Empirical factor demands and flexible functional forms: a bayesian approach," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-75.
    11. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Peter Welz, 2008. "Robust Inflation-Targeting Rules and the Gains from International Policy Coordination," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0208, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    12. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Jagjit Chadha & Qi Sun, 2010. "Productivity, Preferences and UIP Deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 365-391, July.
    13. Shikher, Serge, 2011. "Capital, technology, and specialization in the neoclassical model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 229-242, March.
    14. Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2007. "Growth and Welfare Effects of East-West European Migration," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1507, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2010. "Growth And Welfare Effects Of World Migration," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 615-643, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2010. "DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment," MPRA Paper 24509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alfonso Novales, 2000. "The role of simulation methods in Macroeconomics," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 155-181.
    3. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
    4. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    5. Smith, Gregor W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1997. "Real business-cycle realizations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 243-280, December.
    6. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Patrick Minford & Konstantinos Theodoridis & David Meenagh, 2009. "Testing a Model of the UK by the Method of Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-291, April.
    8. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    9. Peter Woehrmann & Willi Semmler & Martin Lettau, "undated". "Nonparametric Estimation of the Time-varying Sharpe Ratio in Dynamic Asset Pricing Models," IEW - Working Papers 225, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    10. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2007. "Methods to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2599-2636, August.
    11. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
    12. James M. Nason & Takashi Kano, 2004. "Business Cycle Implications of Habit Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2000. "A small open economy model with transaction costs in foreign capital," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1515-1541, August.
    14. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    15. Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2007. "A generalized volatility bound for dynamic economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2269-2290, November.
    16. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, June.
    17. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    18. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    19. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 433-451.
    20. Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Government consumption and private consumption correlations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 615-636, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calibration; simulation; evaluation; saving and investment correlations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.upf.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.