IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osp/wpaper/14e008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Akira Kohsaka

    (Professor, School of International Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University)

  • Jun-ichi Shinkai

    (Specially Appointed Researcher, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

Abstract

We examine the role of financial shocks in business cycles in general and in financial crises in particular in East Asia (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) since the 1990s. Estimating a Financial Conditions Index, we found that financial shocks explain most of business downturns in all the economies in the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) in 1997-98, but that the effects of financial shocks are diverse across economies in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-09. In the GFC, the financial shocks played a relatively minor role in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it played a similarly dominant role in Korea. Among individual financial channels, risk factors related to volatile external financial inflows were most significant in all the economies in the AFC and in Korea in the GFC.

Suggested Citation

  • Akira Kohsaka & Jun-ichi Shinkai, 2014. "East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:14e008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2014/DP2014E008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    2. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    3. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    4. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2004. "Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 1, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel & Chudik, Alexander, 2010. "Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-09 Financial Crisis in a GVAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Stéphanie Guichard & David Haugh & David Turner, 2009. "Quantifying the Effect of Financial Conditions in the Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom and United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 677, OECD Publishing.
    8. Kimberly Beaton & René Lalonde & Corinne Luu, 2009. "A Financial Conditions Index for the United States," Discussion Papers 09-11, Bank of Canada.
    9. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    11. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
    12. Céline Gauthier & Christopher Graham & Ying Liu, 2004. "Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-22, Bank of Canada.
    13. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    14. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
    15. William English & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Edda Zoli, 2005. "Assessing the predictive power of measures of financial conditions for macroeconomic variables," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 228-52, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Mr. Ferhan Salman & Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Ricardo Llaudes, 2010. "The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/237, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    18. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    19. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    20. Rupa Duttagupta & N. Barrera, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada—What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 2010/005, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Konstantinos Tsatsaronis, 2005. "Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 1-4, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2008/169, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2013. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity," Working Papers 37, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    2. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
    3. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    4. Artha Hoxha, 2018. "Explaining the impact of the global financial crisis on European transition countries: a GVAR approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-18, pages 81-97.
    5. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.
    7. Margarita Debuque-Gonzales & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2017. "Financial Conditions Indexes and Monetary Policy in Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(2), pages 83-117, Summer.
    8. Jun-ichi Shinkai & Akira Kohsaka, 2010. "Financial Linkages and Business Cycles of Japan: An Analysis Using Financial Conditions Index," OSIPP Discussion Paper 10E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    9. Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Romain Lafarguette & Dulani Seneviratne, 2018. "Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?," IMF Working Papers 2018/015, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Xiaochun Jiang & Wei Sun & Peng Su & Ting Wang, 2019. "The Synergy of Financial Volatility between China and the United States and the Risk Conduction Paths," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-22, August.
    11. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 16605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Borg Ian & Micallef Brian, 2018. "Constructing a Financial Condition Index for a Small-Open Economy: The Case of Malta," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 89-105, September.
    13. Rémy Charleroy & Michael A. Stemmer, 2014. "An Emerging Market Financial Conditions Index: A VAR Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14068, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    15. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    16. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    17. Kirsten Thompson & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Identifying an index of financial conditions for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(2), pages 256-274, June.
    18. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2012:i:2:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Kristin Forbes, 2012. "The "Big C": Identifying Contagion," NBER Working Papers 18465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Manamani SAHOO, 2017. "Financial conditions index (FCI), inflation and growth: Some evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 147-172, Autumn.
    21. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Financial Conditions Index (FCI); Asian Financial Crisis; Global Financial Crisis; East Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:14e008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akiko Murashita (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iposujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.