IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v171y2008i4p899-914.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the intensity of conflict in Iraq

Author

Listed:
  • Guy P. Nason
  • Daniel Bailey

Abstract

Summary. Since 2003 several Web sites have appeared that track the number of deaths of coalition personnel in the current Iraq conflict. The paper proposes the use of a recently developed multiscale variance stabilization method (the data‐driven Haar–Fisz transform) to obtain good estimates of the mean intensity of deaths and demonstrates its statistical advantages over both the running mean (which is currently used on some Web sites) and also the Box–Cox transformation. The paper analyses both the number of deaths due to all causes and also due to hostile actions between June 2003 and March 2006. In both cases it appears that the marginal variance of both time series is an increasing function of the marginal mean. Further, although our estimates exhibit peaks that are related to local increases in intensity of conflict there appears to be a clear underlying increase in intensity of conflict during the conflict but with a decline and levelling off since June 2005. The paper also proposes a tentative inverse relationship between deaths due to non‐hostile actions and deaths due to hostile actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guy P. Nason & Daniel Bailey, 2008. "Estimating the intensity of conflict in Iraq," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(4), pages 899-914, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:171:y:2008:i:4:p:899-914
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00540.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00540.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00540.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Delouille, V´eronique & Nason, Guy P., 2007. "GOES-8 X-ray sensor variance stabilization using the multiscale data-driven Haar-Fisz transform," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25221, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Jung, Robert C. & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2006. "Time series of count data: modeling, estimation and diagnostics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2350-2364, December.
    3. Piotr Fryzlewicz & Véronique Delouille & Guy P. Nason, 2007. "GOES‐8 X‐ray sensor variance stabilization using the multiscale data‐driven Haar–Fisz transform," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 56(1), pages 99-116, January.
    4. Johnstone, Iain & Silverman, Bernard W., 2005. "EbayesThresh: R Programs for Empirical Bayes Thresholding," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i08).
    5. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    6. Stuart Barber & Guy P. Nason, 2004. "Real nonparametric regression using complex wavelets," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 927-939, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saralees Nadarajah, 2015. "A statistical analysis of Iraq body counts," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 21-37, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonis A. Michis & Guy P. Nason, 2017. "Case study: shipping trend estimation and prediction via multiscale variance stabilisation," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(15), pages 2672-2684, November.
    2. Antonis A. Michis, 2021. "Wavelet Multidimensional Scaling Analysis of European Economic Sentiment Indicators," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 38(3), pages 443-480, October.
    3. Antonis A. Michis & Guy P. Nason, 2015. "Estimation and Prediction of Shipping Trends with the Data-Driven Haar-Fisz Transform," Working Papers 2015-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    4. Mehzabin Tuli, Farzana & Mitra, Suman & Crews, Mariah B., 2021. "Factors influencing the usage of shared E-scooters in Chicago," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 164-185.
    5. Hideki Murakami & Yukari Matsuse & Koji Mukaigawa & Yushi Tsunoda, 2013. "Product lifecycle and choice of transportation modes: Japan' s evidence of import and export," Discussion Papers 2013-28, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration.
    6. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Tadashi Kikuchi, 2014. "Vietnamese Inter – regional labor migration: system approach to the modeling 1989, 1999, 2009," EcoMod2014 6998, EcoMod.
    8. Jean-Paul Azam & Catherine Bonjean, 1995. "La formation du prix du riz : théorie et application au cas d'Antananarivo (Madagascar) ," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(4), pages 1145-1166.
    9. Bauwens, L. & Galli, F., 2009. "Efficient importance sampling for ML estimation of SCD models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1974-1992, April.
    10. Nathaniel Geiger & Bryan McLaughlin & John Velez, 2021. "Not all boomers: temporal orientation explains inter- and intra-cultural variability in the link between age and climate engagement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Vittorio Nicolardi, 2009. "The effects of the new 1995 ESA methodologies of estimation on the structural analysis of Italian consumption," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 18(1), pages 125-149, March.
    12. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    13. Raffaella Santolini, 2017. "Electoral Rules And Public Spending Composition: The Case Of Italian Regions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 551-577, July.
    14. Desbordes, Rodolphe, 2007. "The sensitivity of U.S. multinational enterprises to political and macroeconomic uncertainty: A sectoral analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 732-750, December.
    15. Zsuzsa Lábiscsák-Erdélyi & Ilona Veres-Balajti & Annamária Somhegyi & Karolina Kósa, 2022. "Self-Esteem Is Independent Factor and Moderator of School-Related Psychosocial Determinants of Life Satisfaction in Adolescents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-14, May.
    16. Stern, David I. & Gerlagh, Reyer & Burke, Paul J., 2017. "Modeling the emissions–income relationship using long-run growth rates," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 699-724, December.
    17. Grzegorz Rybak & Edward Kozłowski & Krzysztof Król & Tomasz Rymarczyk & Agnieszka Sulimierska & Artur Dmowski & Piotr Bednarczuk, 2023. "Algorithms for Optimizing Energy Consumption for Fermentation Processes in Biogas Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Garcia-Hiernaux, Alfredo & Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T. & Guerrero, David E., 2023. "Eurozone prices: A tale of convergence and divergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Timothy Tyler Brown & Vishnu Murthy, 2020. "Do public health activities pay for themselves? The effect of county‐level public health expenditures on county‐level public assistance medical care benefits in California," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(10), pages 1220-1230, October.
    20. Tsimpanos, Apostolos & Tsimbos, Cleon & Kalogirou, Stamatis, 2018. "Assessing spatial variation and heterogeneity of fertility in Greece at local authority level," MPRA Paper 100406, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:171:y:2008:i:4:p:899-914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.