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Demographic influences on long-term economic growth in Australia

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  • Australian Treasury

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

Australia's strong economic performance in recent years has reflected several key influences in the supply side of the economy — including strong growth in the labour force, declining structural unemployment, and rapid growth in productivity. Demographic projections point to Australia's population growth slowing over the next 50 years and, in turn, the population ageing. Under these circumstances, it is likely that the growth in the labour force will decline, perhaps significantly, although the outcome will be influenced by future trends in labour force participation, particularly amongst older workers. These emerging trends in the labour force suggest that, for any given rate of productivity growth, Australia's trend GDP growth could be lower over future decades than during the 1990s, with some of these influences becoming apparent towards the later part of the coming decade. On the other hand, growth in GDP per capita — which is a more appropriate indicator of the growth in living standards — is not expected to decline to the same extent, if at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Australian Treasury, 2000. "Demographic influences on long-term economic growth in Australia," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 27-48, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2000_4_1
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    File URL: http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/119/PDF/3demo.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    4. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    5. Phillip King & Harriet Jackson, "undated". "Public Finance Implications of Population Ageing," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2000-08, Department of Finance Canada.
    6. Charles Bean, 2000. "The Australian Economic 'Miracle': A View from the North," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic trends; economic growth; labour supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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