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Herd behavior and aggregate fluctuations in financial markets

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  • Rama Cont

    (CEA Saclay and Science & Finance Research Group)

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (CEA Saclay and Science & Finance Research Group)

Abstract

We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to distributions observed in recent empirical studies of high frequency market data. Our model provides a link between two well-known market phenomena: the heavy tails observed in the distribution of stock market returns on one hand and 'herding' behavior in financial markets on the other hand. In particular, our study suggests a relation between the excess kurtosis observed in asset returns, the market order flow and the tendency of market participants to imitate each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama Cont & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 1997. "Herd behavior and aggregate fluctuations in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/9712318, arXiv.org, revised Jan 1998.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/9712318
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    3. De Vany, Arthur & Lee, Cassey, 2001. "Quality signals in information cascades and the dynamics of the distribution of motion picture box office revenues," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 593-614, March.

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