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What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market

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  • John Baffes
  • Varun Kshirsagar
  • Donald Mitchell

Abstract

We examine the drivers of monthly changes in maize prices across 18 Tanzanian markets. Local prices respond three to four times faster to the main regional market (Nairobi) than to the international benchmark (US Gulf). More importantly, shocks from Nairobi account for only one third of the explained variation in domestic prices; the remaining two-thirds is accounted for by domestic influences (including harvest cycles, weather shocks, and trade policies). Further, we show that remoteness and the local agroecology systematically influence the behavior of food prices.

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  • John Baffes & Varun Kshirsagar & Donald Mitchell, 2019. "What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 160-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:33:y:2019:i:1:p:160-184.
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    7. Michelson, Hope & Fairbairn, Anna & Ellison, Brenna & Maertens, Annemie & Manyong, Victor, 2021. "Misperceived quality: Fertilizer in Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
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    9. Patrick L. Hatzenbuehler & Philip C. Abbott & Tahirou Abdoulaye, 2017. "Price Transmission in Nigerian Food Security Crop Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 143-163, February.
    10. Patrick L. Hatzenbuehler & Xiaoxue Du & Kathleen Painter, 2021. "Price transmission with sparse market information: The case of United States chickpeas," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 665-682, July.
    11. Luca Cattivelli & Federico Antonioli, 2023. "When cointegration is interrupted: Price transmission analysis in the Italian dairy‐feed industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 744-761, July.
    12. Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2020. "Global and local food value chains in Africa: A review," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 143-157, January.
    13. Davids, Tracy & Schroeder, Kateryna G. & Meyer, Ferdinand & Chisanga, Brian, 2015. "Regional Price Transmission in Southern African Maize Markets," 2015: Trade and Societal Well-Being, December 13-15, 2015, Clearwater Beach, Florida 229602, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    14. Davids, T. & Meyer, F. & Westhoff, P., 2018. "Quantifying the regional impact of export controls in Southern African maize markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277353, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. John Baffes & Varun Kshirsagar, 2020. "Shocks to food market systems: A network approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 111-129, January.
    16. Krah, Kwabena, 2022. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forestloss: evidence from Ghana," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322247, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Linde Götz & Feng Qiu & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Thomas Glauben, 2016. "Export Restrictions and Smooth Transition Cointegration: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 398-419, June.
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    22. Joseph Mawejje, 2016. "Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    23. Randell, Heather & Gray, Clark & Shayo, Elizabeth H., 2022. "Climatic conditions and household food security: Evidence from Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    24. Channa, Hira & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Feleke, Shiferaw & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2022. "Overcoming smallholder farmers’ post-harvest constraints through harvest loans and storage technology: Insights from a randomized controlled trial in Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    25. Joseph Mawejje, 2016. "Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food prices; Price transmission; Tanzania; Trade policies; Weather anomalies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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