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Kompozitný predstihový indikátor hospodárskeho cyklu českej ekonomiky
[Composite Leading Indicator of Czech Business Cycle]

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  • Andrea Tkáčová

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to create composite leading indicator for Czech economy and its comparison with composite leading indicators created by OECD and Eurostat. The theoretical part of the paper consists of the methods that are employed for creation composite leading indicator in the world. We compare methods of OECD, Eurostat, Conference Board and the methods of Slovak and Czech authors. The empirical part of the paper is focused on analysis of 120 indicators of Czech economy and their selection on the coincident, lagging and leading indicators. From the group of leading indicators is created new composite leading indicator for Czech economy which can by used on monitoring and short-term prediction of Czech business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Tkáčová, 2012. "Kompozitný predstihový indikátor hospodárskeho cyklu českej ekonomiky [Composite Leading Indicator of Czech Business Cycle]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(5), pages 590-613.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2012:y:2012:i:5:id:865:p:590-613
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.865
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank.
    5. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 17, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; composite leading indicator; reference series; cyclical indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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