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Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations

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  • Christopher G. Gibbs
  • Mariano Kulish

Abstract

We study disinflations under imperfect credibility of the central bank. Imperfect credibility is modeled as the extent to which agents rely on adaptive learning to form expectations. Lower credibility increases the mean, variance, and skewness of the distribution of sacrifice ratios. When credibility is low, disinflationary policies become very costly for adverse realizations of the shocks. Even if the impact of an announcement decreases with lower credibility, pre-announcing a disinflation reduces the sacrifice ratio. Additionally, disinflationary policies implemented after a period of below trend inflation lead to lower sacrifice ratios. Opportunistic disinflations are desirable when credibility is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher G. Gibbs & Mariano Kulish, 2015. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2015-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2015-36
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    3. Kwangyong Park, 2023. "Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 145-197, June.
    4. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    5. Javier García-Cicco, 2019. "Alternative Monetary-Policy Instruments and Limited Credibility in Small and Open Economies: An Exploration," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4145, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    6. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Germán Gutiérrez & Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 25609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2023. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-47, January.
    9. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Xin, Herbert W., 2024. "The sacrifice ratio and active fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    10. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Xin, Herbert W., 2024. "The sacrifice ratio and active fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    11. Patrizio Tirelli & Maria Ferrara, 2020. "Disinflation, Inequality, And Welfare In A Tank Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1297-1313, July.
    12. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    13. Eusepi, Stefano & Gibbs, Chris & Preston, Bruce, 2021. "Forward guidance with unanchored expectations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2021, Bank of Finland.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. James B. Bullard, 2022. "Reflections on the Disinflationary Methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Speech 94556, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Faryna, Oleksandr & Jonsson, Magnus & Shapovalenko, Nadiia, 2021. "The cost of disinflation in a small open economy vis-à-vis a closed economy," Working Paper Series 407, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Eusepi, Stefano & Gibbs, Chris & Preston, Bruce, 2021. "Forward guidance with unanchored expectations," Research Discussion Papers 11/2021, Bank of Finland.
    19. Federico Sturzenegger, 2019. "Macri´s Macro: The meandering road to stability and growth," Working Papers 135, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2019.

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