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Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?

Author

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  • Frédérick Demers
  • Annie De Champlain

Abstract

The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts. The authors show that the response of inflation to output-gap or real exchange rate shocks varies considerably across the components, although the average response remains low; they also show that the average response has decreased over time. To forecast monthly inflation, the use of disaggregate data is a significant improvement over the use of aggregate data. However, the improvements in forecasts of quarterly rates of inflation are only minor. Overall, it remains difficult to properly model and forecast monthly core inflation in Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Frédérick Demers & David Dupuis, 2005. "Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information," Staff Working Papers 05-31, Bank of Canada.
    2. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Giancarlo Lutero & Marco Marini, 2010. "Direct vs Indirect Forecasts of Foreign Trade Unit Value Indices," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 12(2-3), pages 73-96, October.
    4. Alex Ilek, 2007. "Aggregation versus Disaggregation - What can we learn from it?," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2007.02b, Bank of Israel.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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