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The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis

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  • ROBERT A. BLECKER

    (Department of Economics, American University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of the real value of the dollar on investment in US domestic manufacturing using aggregate data for 1973-2004. Econometric estimation shows a negative effect that is much larger than has been found in any previous study. The exchange rate affects investment mainly, although not exclusively, through the channel of financial or liquidity constraints, rather than by affecting the desired stock of capital. Counterfactual simulations show that US manufacturing investment would have been 61% higher and the capital stock would have been 17% higher in 2004 if the dollar had not appreciated after 1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A. Blecker, 2006. "The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis," Working Papers 2006-07, American University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:0706
    DOI: 10.17606/pjdx-jc63
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Do Prices Matter?
      by JW Mason in The Slack Wire on 2011-04-17 06:16:00

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Political Economy > The Political Economy of the US
    2. > Political Economy > The Political Economy of the US

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    Cited by:

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    2. Tatiana Evdokimova & Pavel Trunin & Andrei Zubarev, 2013. "The Impact of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Activity in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 165P, pages 164-164.
    3. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Economias em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(2), pages 187-213.
    4. Thomas Palley, 2007. "Seeking Full Employment Again:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 14-50.
    5. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2015. "Investment and the real exchange rate's profitability channel in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 716-739, September.
    6. Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    7. Garcia-Jimenez, Carlos I. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2010. "The Effects of Public Debt on Labor Demand in the United States," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56361, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Celio Hiratuka & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Investment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry and the real exchange rate: An investigation using sectoral-level panel data," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1408, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hajilee, Massomeh, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on domestic investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-12.
    10. Gilberto Lima & Gabriel Porcile, 2013. "Economic growth and income distribution with heterogeneous preferences on the real exchange rate," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 651-674.
    11. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2014. "Trade, investment, and capital flows:Mexico's macroeconomic adjustment to the Great Recession," Working Paper Series Sobre México 2014002, Sobre México. Temas en economía.
    12. Thomas I. Palley, 2006. "Rethinking Trade and Trade Policy: Gomory, Baumol, and Samuelson on Comparative Advantage," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_86, Levy Economics Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; manufacturing; exchange rate; US dollar; profits; US economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

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