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Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?

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  • Selim Elekdag
  • Yiqun Wu

Abstract

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on sixty credit booms across emerging markets. The build-up of credit booms across emerging markets seems to be characterized by loose monetary policy stances, with domestic policy rates below trend during the prepeak phase of credit booms. While credit booms are associated with episodes of large capital inflows, international interest rates (a proxy for global liquidity) are virtually flat during these periods. Therefore, although external factors such as global liquidity conditions matter, and possibly increasingly so over time, domestic factors (especially monetary policy) also appear to be tightly associated with real credit growth across emerging markets.

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  • Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:49:y:2013:i:5:p:45-62
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    7. Wee Chian Koh & M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. Nagle & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Debt and Financial Crises," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
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    10. Zuzana Košťálová & Eva Horvátová & Štefan Lyócsa & Peter Gernát, 2022. "New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(1), pages 79-112, January.
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