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What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

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  • Mr. Fei Han
  • Mr. Selim A Elekdag

Abstract

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby shocks within blocks are identified using sign restrictions, whereas shocks across the blocks are identified using a recursive (block-) Cholesky structure. We find that domestic factors are more dominant than external factors in driving rapid credit growth in emerging Asia. This is particularly true for domestic monetary policy, which can play a pivotal role in terms of managing rapid credit growth in emerging Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Fei Han & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2012. "What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?," IMF Working Papers 2012/043, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/043
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Berrak Bahadir & Neven Valev, 2023. "Global Liquidity and Household Credit Growth," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 1039-1061, November.
    4. Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Fei Han, 2015. "Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets: Propeller of Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2015/212, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Berrak Bahadir & Neven Valev, 2021. "Global Liquidity and Household Credit," Working Papers 2106, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    6. Stef, Nicolae & Dimelis, Sophia, 2020. "Bankruptcy regime and the banking system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 480-495.
    7. Perugini, Cristiano & Hölscher, Jens & Collie, Simon, 2013. "Inequality, credit expansion and financial crises," MPRA Paper 51336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ali Awdeh, 2017. "The Determinants of Credit Growth in Lebanon," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 9-19, February.
    9. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Lending," Working Papers hal-01158241, HAL.
    10. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
    11. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Witkowski, Bartosz, 2016. "Credit growth in Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe: The case of foreign bank subsidiaries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 146-158.
    12. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.
    13. Thu, Le Ha & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; monetary policy; aggregate demand; rapid credit growth; credit booms; emerging Asia; SVAR; Bayesian estimation; sign restrictions; shock identification; credit growth; monetary policy shock; credit dynamics; EMAS monetary policy; credit boom; credit shock; EMAS credit variation; aggregate demand demand shock; Credit; Structural vector autoregression; Exchange rate flexibility; Credit booms; Short term interest rates; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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