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Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves

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  • Russell, Bill

Abstract

This paper argues that because United States inflation has been non-stationary over the past five decades the vast body of empirical research that proceeds without adequately accounting for the non-stationarity in the data is invalid. Using 50 years of United States inflation data the standard results in the Phillips curve literature are shown to be due to unaccounted shifts in the mean rates of inflation over the period. Short and long-run Phillips curves for the United States are then estimated using time series panel data techniques that account for these shifts in mean.

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  • Russell, Bill, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:406-419
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    Cited by:

    1. Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2016. "Breaks and the Statistical Process of Inflation: The Case of the ‘Modern’ Phillips Curve," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 294, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    2. Bill Russell, 2014. "ARCH and structural breaks in United States inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(14), pages 973-978, September.
    3. Russell, Bill & Chowdhury, Rosen Azad, 2013. "Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-38.
    4. Russell, Bill & Banerjee, Anindya, 2008. "The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1792-1815, December.
    5. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. Russel, Bill, 2015. "'Modern' Phillips Curves and the Implications For The Statistical Process of Inflation," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-84, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2019. "Breaks and the statistical process of inflation: the case of estimating the ‘modern’ long-run Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1455-1475, May.
    8. Filiz Yesilyurt & J. Elhorst, 2014. "A regional analysis of inflation dynamics in Turkey," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Bill Russell, 2017. "‘Modern’ Phillips curves and the implications for the statistical process of inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 58-60, January.
    10. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2010. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 232, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    11. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Heinrichs, Katrin & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "Positive trend inflation and the Phillips curve – A tale of two slopes and various impulse responses," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 283-307.
    13. Russell, Bill, 2013. "Macroeconomics: Science or Faith Based Discipline?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-114, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    14. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "Flattening of the Phillips curve and the role of the oil price: An unobserved component model for the USA and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 259-262.
    15. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
    16. Nymoen, Ragnar & Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind, 2012. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-263.
    17. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve Inflation Panel data Non-stationary data;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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