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Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology

Author

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  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laurent Ferrara

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Denis Ferrand
  • Eric Heyer
  • Claude Diebolt
  • Frederique Bec
  • Catherine Doz
  • Pierre-Alain Pionnier
  • Antonin Aviat

Abstract

This paper proposes a reference quarterly dating for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. The peak before the Covid-19 recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.
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Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Mignon & Laurent Ferrara & Denis Ferrand & Eric Heyer & Claude Diebolt & Frederique Bec & Catherine Doz & Pierre-Alain Pionnier & Antonin Aviat, 2022. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Post-Print hal-04435786, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04435786
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    2. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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