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Do Bulls and Bears Move Acoross Borders: International Transimission of Stock Returns and Volatility as the World Turns

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  • Wen-Ling Lin
  • Robert F. Engle
  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically how returns and volatilities correlated between Tokyo and New York stock indices (Nikkei 225 and s&p500). First, intradaily data are used, so that daytime and overnight returns are defined for both markets. Tokyo daytime hours overlap with New York overnight hours, while New York daytime hours overlap with Tokyo overnight hours. We find that in general Tokyo (New York) daytime returns are significantly correlated with New York (Tokyo) overnight returns. This suggests that information revealed during the trading hours of one market has a global impact on the returns of the other market. One exception is that after the crash, the Tokyo overnight returns are not significantly affected by New York daytime returns. A signal extraction model with GARCH processes, with intradaily data, is proposed to determine a global factor from daytime returns. This is problem of investors for pricing the opening price of a domestic market conditional on the foreign daytime returns. In addition, lagged returns and volatilities are investigated. Except for a lagged return spillover from New York to Tokyo for the period after the crash, there are no significant lagged spillovers in returns and volatilities are detected.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen-Ling Lin & Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito, 1992. "Do Bulls and Bears Move Acoross Borders: International Transimission of Stock Returns and Volatility as the World Turns," Discussion Paper Series a253, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:a253
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    Cited by:

    1. Baekin Cha & Yan-leung Cheung, 1998. "The Impact of the U.S. and the Japanese Equity Markets on the Emerging Asia-Pacific Equity Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 5(3), pages 191-209, November.
    2. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Chowdhury, Mustafa & Martikainen, Teppo, 1996. "Common volatility in major stock index futures markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 623-630, December.
    3. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
    4. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    5. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    6. Hupperets, Erik C. J. & Menkveld, Albert J., 2002. "Intraday analysis of market integration: Dutch blue chips traded in Amsterdam and New York," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 57-82, January.
    7. Becker, Kent G. & Finnerty, Joseph E. & Friedman, Joseph, 1995. "Economic news and equity market linkages between the U.S. and U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1191-1210, October.
    8. Eric Zitzewitz, 2003. "Who Cares About Shareholders? Arbitrage-Proofing Mutual Funds," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 245-280, October.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    10. Craig, Alastair & Dravid, Ajay & Richardson, Matthew, 1995. "Market efficiency around the clock Some supporting evidence using foreign-based derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 161-180.

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