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Disentangling Temporal Patterns in Elasticities: A Functional Coefficient Panel Analysis of Electricity Demand

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Abstract

We introduce a panel model with a nonparametric functional coefficient of multiple arguments. The coefficient is a function both of time, allowing temporal changes in an otherwise linear model, and of the regressor itself, allowing nonlinearity. In contrast to a time series model, the effects of the two arguments can be identified using a panel model. We apply the model to the relationship between real GDP and electricity consumption. Our results suggest that the corresponding elasticities have decreased over time in developed countries, but that this decrease cannot be entirely explained by changes in GDP itself or by sectoral shifts.

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  • Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & Joon Y. Park & J. Isaac Miller, 2013. "Disentangling Temporal Patterns in Elasticities: A Functional Coefficient Panel Analysis of Electricity Demand," Working Papers 1320, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    • Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:1320
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    Cited by:

    1. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    2. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov, 2020. "Gasoline Demand Elasticities at the Backdrop of Lower Oil Prices: Fuel-Subsidizing Country Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Liddle, Brantley & Parker, Steven & Hasanov, Fakhri, 2023. "Why has the OECD long-run GDP elasticity of economy-wide electricity demand declined? Because the electrification of energy services has saturated," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Liddle, Brantley, 2023. "Is timing everything? Assessing the evidence on whether energy/electricity demand elasticities are time-varying," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Fakhri J. Hasanov & Carlo A. Bollino & Ceyhun Mahmudlu, 2017. "Modeling of Electricity Demand for Azerbaijan: Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegration Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-12, November.
    6. Miller, J. Isaac & Nam, Kyungsik, 2022. "Modeling peak electricity demand: A semiparametric approach using weather-driven cross-temperature response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Meangbua, Onicha & Dhakal, Shobhakar & Kuwornu, John K.M., 2019. "Factors influencing energy requirements and CO2 emissions of households in Thailand: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 521-531.
    8. Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y., 2021. "Forecasting regional long-run energy demand: A functional coefficient panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Julián Pérez-García & Julián Moral-Carcedo, 2017. "Why Electricity Demand Is Highly Income-Elastic in Spain: A Cross-Country Comparison Based on an Index-Decomposition Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin & Smyth, Russell, 2021. "On income and price elasticities for energy demand: A panel data study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Ha-Hyun Jo & Minwoo Jang & Jaehyeok Kim, 2020. "How Population Age Distribution Affects Future Electricity Demand in Korea: Applying Population Polynomial Function," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Brantley Liddle, 2022. "What Is the Temporal Path of the GDP Elasticity of Energy Consumption in OECD Countries? An Assessment of Previous Findings and New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-12, May.
    13. Yongok Choi, 2020. "Impact of Longevity Risks on the Korean Government: Proposing a New Mortality Forecasting Model," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 36, pages 201-225.
    14. Kyungsik Nam & Sungro Lee & Hocheol Jeon, 2020. "Nonlinearity between CO 2 Emission and Economic Development: Evidence from a Functional Coefficient Panel Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Chang, Yoosoon & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2014. "Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand with an Application to Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 334-347.
    16. Friedrich, Marina & Lin, Yicong, 2024. "Sieve bootstrap inference for linear time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    17. Yoosoon Chang & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park & Sungkeun Park, 2014. "Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand," Working Papers 1409, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    18. Liddle, Brantley & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin, 2020. "Time-varying income and price elasticities for energy demand: Evidence from a middle-income panel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    19. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O., 2016. "Modeling energy demand: Some emerging issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1470-1480.
    20. Bennedsen, Mikkel & Hillebrand, Eric & Jensen, Sebastian, 2023. "A neural network approach to the environmental Kuznets curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    21. Yicong Lin & Mingxuan Song, 2023. "Robust bootstrap inference for linear time-varying coefficient models: Some Monte Carlo evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-049/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Mohammad Nure Alam, 2021. "Accessing the Effect of Renewables on the Wholesale Power Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 341-360.
    23. Jeyhun Mikayilov & Fred Joutz & Fakhri Hasanov, 2019. "Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?," Discussion Papers ks--2019-dp81, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    semiparametric panel regression; partially linear functional coefficient model; elasticity of electricity demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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