الآثار الإقتصادية للتجارة الخارجية بين مصر والكوميسا بإستخدام نموذج الجاذبية للتحليل المكانى[Economic Impact for Trade Between Egypt and COMESA By Using Gravity Model of Spatial Analysis]

Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is considered one of the most economic blocks in Africa, where membership includes nineteen countries, including Egypt since the mid-1998, and aims to increase the prospects for cooperation and increase trade between COMESA countries. Research problem concerned with that, volume of trade exchange between Egypt and COMESA is relatively small, which will reflect difficulty reducing the increasing in trade deficit, and also difficulty to obtain foreign exchange which is necessary for economic development. Objective of research was how to increase the volume of trade exchange between Egypt and COMESA, in the light of regional and spatial association among them, and to identify the most important factors affecting the foreign trade of Egypt with COMESA, moreover, standing on the countries which are responsible for increasing or decreasing Egypt's exports or imports. Gravity models via spatial analysis were estimated, via tobit random effect in the case of general spatial autocorrelation (SAC) model during (1995-2010), and using spatial weight matrix that reflects borders among neighboring countries. Results of both basic and augmented gravity models for exports, showed that Libya, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, are responsible for increasing Egypt's exports, while Djibouti, Mauritius, and Zambia, are responsible for decreasing Egypt's exports, which may be due to too long distance between Egypt, and Zambia or Mauritius, resulting in high transport costs, and low GDP in Djibouti. Results indicated also that at high level of per capita GDP for citizen of countries studied, demand on Egypt exports decrease, which may imply that Egyptian commodity is an inferior goods in the African markets in this case. Results of basic gravity model for imports, indicated to that Libya, Kenya, and Mauritius are responsible for increasing Egypt's imports, while: Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Zambia are responsible for decreasing Egypt's imports. Finally, results of augmented gravity model for imports, indicated that there is an inverse relationship between per capita GDP in Egypt and per capita GDP in COMESA and geographical distance with Egypt's imports, it turns out that increasing per capita GDP in: Sudan, Kenya, and Mauritius leads to increase Egypt's imports from them. While increasing per capita GDP in: Libya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Zambia leads to a decrease in Egypt's imports from them. The study recommended to develop infrastructure projects, and improve tools of transport, particularly with neighboring countries, i.e., Libya and Sudan, as well as export goods and services. Moreover, Egypt should take into account the taste of the African consumer and quality requirements, studying the internal market for COMESA countries and establishment common area of investment.