IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ind/igiwpp/2020-030.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary spillovers and real exchange rate misalignments in emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Krittika Banerjee

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

After the adoption of unconventional monetary policies (UMP) in advanced economies (AEs) there weremany studies of monetary spillovers to asset prices in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the extentof contribution of EMEs and AEs respectively in real exchange rate (RER) misalignments has not been addressed. Using fixed effects, pooled mean group and common correlated effects we address the gap ina cross-country panel set-up with country specific controls. Multi-way clustering is used to ensure robust statistical inferences. Robust evidence is found for significant monetary spillovers over 1998-2017 in the form of RER overvaluation of EMEs against AEs especially through the portfolio rebalancing channel. EME RER against US saw significantly more overvaluation in UMP years indicating greater role of US in monetary spillovers. However, in the long run monetary neutrality holds. EMEs did pursue mercantilist and precautionary policies that undervalued their RERs. Precautionary undervaluation is more evident with bilateral EME US RER. Export diversification reduces EME mercantilist motives against US. That AE monetary policy significantly appreciates EMERER should be kept in mind for future policy cooperation between EMEs and AEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Krittika Banerjee & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Monetary spillovers and real exchange rate misalignments in emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-030, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2020-030.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2012. "A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 164-177.
    2. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 23-41.
    3. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    5. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    7. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    8. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    9. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    10. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.
    11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Piti Disyatat, 2010. "Central bank tools and liquidity shortages," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug), pages 29-42.
    12. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    13. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    14. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Spillovers between US real estate and financial assets in time and frequency domains," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(6), pages 525-537, April.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    16. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    17. Stephanos Papadamou & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2019. "Spillover Effects of US QE and QE Tapering on African and Middle Eastern Stock Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, April.
    18. James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER Working Papers 23429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy: Market Impact and International Spillovers," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 36-74, May.
    20. Sami Alpanda & Serdar Kabaca, 2020. "International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 342-391.
    21. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6820, The World Bank.
    22. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    23. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    24. K. P. Prabheesh & D. Malathy & R. Madhumathi, 2009. "Precautionary and mercantilist approaches to demand for international reserves: an empirical investigation in the Indian context," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 279-291.
    25. Raghuram Rajan, 2015. "Competitive monetary easing: is it yesterday once more?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 5-16, July.
    26. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    27. Erlend Nier & Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Tomas Mondino, 2014. "Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?," IMF Working Papers 2014/196, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    29. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2014. "Impact of Fed Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/109, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Tarek Chebbi, 2019. "On the Effects of Asset Purchase Programs on Emerging Stock Markets," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 408-430, July.
    31. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    32. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
    33. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    34. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Mr. Joshua Aizenman & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2005/198, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jana, R.K. & Roubaud, David, 2019. "The policy uncertainty and market volatility puzzle: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    38. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    39. Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2020. "A survey of empirical findings on unconventional central bank policies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1533-1577, April.
    40. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal & Rupayan Pal, 2022. "Global shocks and international policy coordination," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(4), pages 458-468, September.
    2. Krittika Banerjee & Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Current account imbalances: Exploring role of domestic and external factors for large emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Vincent Mugwira, 2023. "Exchange Rate (MIS-) Alignment: An Application of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (beer) Approach to Zimbabwe (1990-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 128-141, September.
    4. Banerjee, Krittika & Goyal, Ashima, 2021. "Behavioural​ equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments: Evidence from large emerging markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 414-436.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    2. Ledóchowski, Michał & Żuk, Piotr, 2022. "What drives portfolio capital inflows into emerging market economies? The role of the Fed's and ECB's balance sheet policies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    3. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    4. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-52.
    6. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Bathia, Deven & Bouras, Christos & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Cross-border capital flows and return dynamics in emerging stock markets: Relative roles of equity and debt flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Jain, Siddharth & Bakry, Walid, 2022. "In search of a rational foundation for the massive IT boom in the Australian banking industry: Can the IT boom really drive relationship banking?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Bartkiewicz Piotr, 2018. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 67-76, December.
    10. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
    11. Usman, Muhammad & Makhdum, Muhammad Sohail Amjad, 2021. "What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-28.
    12. Chris Belmert Milindi & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2023. "Impact of technological progress on carbon emissions in different country income groups," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1348-1382, August.
    13. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    14. GU, Jianqiang & Umar, Muhammad & Soran, Semih & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2020. "Exacerbating effect of energy prices on resource curse: Can research and development be a mitigating factor?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2017. "Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 23474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Yves, Togba Boboy & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Swing in the Fed’s balance sheet policy and spillover effects on emerging Asian countries," MPRA Paper 87141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Rafael Cezar & Maéva Silvestrini, 2018. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position," Working papers 701, Banque de France.
    18. Muhammad Azam & Zia Ur Rehman & Yusnidah Ibrahim, 2022. "Causal nexus in industrialization, urbanization, trade openness, and carbon emissions: empirical evidence from OPEC economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13990-14010, December.
    19. Michael Appiah & Bright Akwasi Gyamfi & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Festus Victor Bekun, 2023. "Do financial development, foreign direct investment, and economic growth enhance industrial development? Fresh evidence from Sub-Sahara African countries," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(2), pages 203-227, May.
    20. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," NBER Working Papers 27927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policies; monetary spillovers; mercantilist; precautionary; pooled mean group; common correlated effects; cluster robust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamprasad M. Pujar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/igidrin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.