IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/baf/cbafwp/cbafwp20146.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Unconventional Monetary Policies a Priced Risk Factor for Hedge Fund Strategies?

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Alexei Orlov

Abstract

We test whether the unconventional monetary policy (UMP) announcements by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank represent a risk factor for the hedge fund industry as a whole and for ten commonly used strategies in particular. Using modified event studies and Markov switching models, we find that UMP announcements represent a risk factor for Convertible Arbitrage, Dedicated Short Bias, Emerging Markets, Equity Market Neutral, Fixed Income Arbitrage strategies as well as the Multi-Strategy type. We further test whether UMP announcements have an indirect effect on hedge funds’ performance through breaks in the parameters of the conventional risk factors. Using Chow and Bai-Perron tests, we find that for the industry as a whole and for all strategies, most of the UMP announcements correspond to break dates for the traditional factor loadings.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Guidolin & Alexei Orlov, 2020. "Are Unconventional Monetary Policies a Priced Risk Factor for Hedge Fund Strategies?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20146, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp20146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/baffic/baf/papers/cbafwp20146.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Mr. Richard Varghese & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2018. "A New Wave of ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policies: Domestic Impact and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2018/011, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Adam L. Aiken & Christopher P. Clifford & Jesse Ellis, 2013. "Out of the Dark: Hedge Fund Reporting Biases and Commercial Databases," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 208-243.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2013. "Hedge fund contagion and risk-adjusted returns: A Markov-switching dynamic factor approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 16-29.
    6. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review [Uncertainty of interest rate path as a monetary policy instrument]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799.
    7. Andrea Buraschi & Robert Kosowski & Worrawat Sritrakul, 2014. "Incentives and Endogenous Risk Taking: A Structural View on Hedge Fund Alphas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2819-2870, December.
    8. V Agarwal & N Y Naik, 2000. "Generalised style analysis of hedge funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 93-109, July.
    9. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:208-243 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    11. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
    12. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
    14. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    17. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    19. Taoufik Bouraoui, 2015. "The effect of reducing quantitative easing on emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(15), pages 1562-1573, March.
    20. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2013. "Hedge fund contagion and risk-adjusted returns: A Markov-switching dynamic factor approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 16-29.
    21. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    22. Wendy Edelberg & David A. Marshall, 1996. "Monetary policy shocks and long-term interest rates," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 20(Mar), pages 2-17.
    23. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    24. Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
    25. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2009. "Hedge Fund Risk Dynamics: Implications for Performance Appraisal," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 985-1035, April.
    26. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    27. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    28. Vikas Agarwal & Vyacheslav Fos & Wei Jiang, 2013. "Inferring Reporting-Related Biases in Hedge Fund Databases from Hedge Fund Equity Holdings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1271-1289, June.
    29. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    30. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    31. Alexander Berglund & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2018. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis: Threat or Opportunity to Hedge Funds' Alphas?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1884, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    32. Gregoriou, Greg N., 2006. "Funds of Hedge Funds," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780750679848.
    33. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "How Central Should the Central Bank Be?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-133, March.
    34. William Fung & David A. Hsieh & Narayan Y. Naik & Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "Hedge Funds: Performance, Risk, and Capital Formation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1777-1803, August.
    35. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    36. Schauten, Marc B.J. & Willemstein, Robin & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2015. "A tale of feedback trading by hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 239-259.
    37. Sergei Antoshin & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Marcos R Souto, 2008. "Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples," IMF Working Papers 2008/075, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2008. "Detecting structural breaks and identifying risk factors in hedge fund returns: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2471-2481, November.
    39. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "How Central Should the Central Bank Be?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-133, March.
    40. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Berglund & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2020. "Monetary policy after the crisis: A threat to hedge funds' alphas?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 219-238, May.
    2. Alexander Berglund & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2018. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis: Threat or Opportunity to Hedge Funds' Alphas?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1884, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. Newton, David & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Stafylas, Dimitrios & Sutcliffe, Charles & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Hedge fund strategies, performance &diversification: A portfolio theory & stochastic discount factor approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    4. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, Tracy Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2017. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," CFR Working Papers 15-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2017.
    5. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    6. Yang, Fan & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2022. "Hedge Fund Performance: A Quantitative Survey," EconStor Preprints 260612, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    8. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2017. "Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 23474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Yang, Fan & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2024. "Where Have All the Alphas Gone? A Meta-Analysis of Hedge Fund Performance," EconStor Preprints 289497, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Ozdagli, Ali & Velikov, Mihail, 2020. "Show me the money: The monetary policy risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 320-339.
    11. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    14. Sekandary, Ghezal & Bask, Mikael, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty, monetary policy surprises and stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    15. Bali, Turan G. & Weigert, Florian, 2021. "Hedge funds and the positive idiosyncratic volatility effect," CFR Working Papers 21-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. John Ammer & John Rogers & Gang Wang & Yang Yu, 2020. "Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1285, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    18. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    19. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Does monetary policy generate asset price bubbles ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    20. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S. & Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2020. "On the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 95-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge fund strategies; unconventional monetary policy; risk factors; modified event studies; Markov switching models; breakpoint tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp20146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michela Pozzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbbocit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.