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The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence

Author

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  • Drago Bergholt
  • Francesco Furlanetto
  • Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli

Abstract

We use time series techniques to estimate the importance of four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: rising firm markups, falling bargaining power of workers, higher investment-specific technology growth, and more automated production processes. Identification is achieved with restrictions derived from a stylized model of structural change. Our results point to automation as the main driver of the labor share, although rising markups have played an important role in the last 20 years. We also find evidence of capital-labor complementarity, suggesting that capital deepening may have raised the labor share.

Suggested Citation

  • Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2022. "The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 163-198, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:163-98
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190365
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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