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Risk-return trade-off and serial correlation: Do volume and volatility matter?

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  • Kinnunen, Jyri

Abstract

I investigate a relation between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return using a model that allows the relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation to change over time. The model detects a positive risk-return relation, but the importance of the risk-return relation fluctuates with the level of information flow, measured by volatility. During low-volatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of the pure risk-return explanation for expected returns. This offers an explanation as to why detection of a positive risk-return trade-off has been challenging, while autocorrelation has been a robust finding.

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  • Kinnunen, Jyri, 2014. "Risk-return trade-off and serial correlation: Do volume and volatility matter?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:20:y:2014:i:c:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2014.04.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yao, Jing & Yang, Yiwen, 2023. "Risk-return tradeoff and serial correlation in the Chinese stock market: A bailout-driven crash feedback hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Jyri Kinnunen & Minna Martikainen, 2017. "Expected Returns and Idiosyncratic Risk: Industry-Level Evidence from Russia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2528-2544, November.
    4. Dimitrios Koutmos & James E. Payne, 2021. "Intertemporal asset pricing with bitcoin," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 619-645, February.
    5. Jyri Kinnunen & Minna Martikainen, 2017. "Dynamic Autocorrelation and International Portfolio Allocation," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 21(1), pages 21-48, March.
    6. Fredj Jawadi & Waël Louhichi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Rivo Randrianarivony, 2016. "Intraday jumps and trading volume: a nonlinear Tobit specification," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1167-1186, November.
    7. Ma, Chaoqun & Mi, Xianhua & Cai, Zongwu, 2020. "Nonlinear and time-varying risk premia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511231444 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Liu, Zhicao & Ye, Yong & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing, 2017. "Can economic policy uncertainty help to forecast the volatility: A multifractal perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 181-188.
    10. Naqi Shah, Sadia & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Analyse Risk-Return Paradox: Evidence from Electricity Sector of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 68783, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kinnunen, Jyri, 2017. "Dynamic cross-autocorrelation in stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 162-173.
    12. Qamar Ishtiaq & Fahad Abdullah, 2015. "Ownership Concentration and Cross-Autocorrelation in Portfolio Returns," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 7(2), pages 85-104, October.
    13. Frazier, David T. & Liu, Xiaochun, 2016. "A new approach to risk-return trade-off dynamics via decomposition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-55.
    14. Liu, Jingzhen, 2019. "Impacts of lagged returns on the risk-return relationship of Chinese aggregate stock market: Evidence from different data frequencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 243-257.
    15. Hao Liu & Shihan Shen & Tianyi Wang & Zhuo Huang, 2016. "Revisiting the risk-return relation in the Chinese stock market: Decomposition of risk premium and volatility feedback effect," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 140-153, May.
    16. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511231444 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi & Waël Louhichi, 2017. "Modelling the relationship between future energy intraday volatility and trading volume with wavelet," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(20), pages 1981-1993, April.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_030 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jyri Kinnunen & Minna Martikainen, 2017. "Expected Returns and Idiosyncratic Risk: Industry-Level Evidence from Russia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2528-2544, November.
    20. Kinnunen, Jyri, 2013. "Dynamic return predictability in the Russian stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 107-121.
    21. Tan, Zhengxun & Xiao, Binuo & Huang, Yilong & Zhou, Li, 2021. "Value at risk and return in Chinese and the US stock markets: Double long memory and fractional cointegration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ICAPM; Risk-return trade-off; Volume; Volatility; Autocorrelation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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