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Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse

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  • Gulan, Adam
  • Haavio, Markus
  • Kilponen, Juha

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.

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  • Gulan, Adam & Haavio, Markus & Kilponen, Juha, 2021. "Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:131:y:2021:i:c:s002219962100057x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103480
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    Cited by:

    1. Mäki-Fränti, Petri & Silvo, Aino & Gulan, Adam & Kilponen, Juha, 2022. "Monetary policy and inequality: The Finnish case," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2022, Bank of Finland.
    2. Mäki-Fränti, Petri & Silvo, Aino & Gulan, Adam & Kilponen, Juha, 2022. "Monetary policy and inequality in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 3/2022, Bank of Finland.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Salokangas, Henri & Böckerman, Petri & Huikari, Sanna & Korhonen, Marko & Korpelainen, Raija & Svento, Rauli, 2022. "Did the Finnish depression of the early 1990s have a silver lining? The effect of unemployment on long-term physical activity," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade shock ; Great depressions ; Small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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