IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sjecst/v158y2022i1d10.1186_s41937-022-00096-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

160 Years of aggregate supply and demand in Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Rebecca Stuart

    (Université de Neuchâtel
    Queen’s University Belfast)

Abstract

This paper studies the causes of movements in inflation and output in Switzerland over 160 years between 1855 and 2015. Aggregate supply and demand shocks are identified in a structural VAR, and their evolution and effect on prices and output are discussed. Shocks to the Swiss economy have generally, although not uniformly, declined in magnitude over the sample period. The World Wars, the deflation of the 1920s and the Great Depression represented much larger shocks than either of 1970s break-up of Bretton Woods and move to floating exchange rates or the Global Financial Crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca Stuart, 2022. "160 Years of aggregate supply and demand in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:158:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-022-00096-2
    DOI: 10.1186/s41937-022-00096-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s41937-022-00096-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s41937-022-00096-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    3. Herger, Nils, 2022. "Unregulated and regulated free banking: Evidence from the case of Switzerland (1826–1907)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    5. Stohr, Christian, 2016. "Trading gains: new estimates of Swiss GDP,1851 to 2008," Economic History Working Papers 67032, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    6. Rich, Georg, 2003. "Swiss monetary policy targeting 1974-1996: the role of internal policy analysis," Working Paper Series 236, European Central Bank.
    7. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    9. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan, 2016. "The Output-Inflation Trade-Off In Switzerland, 1916 €“ 2015," CEPR Discussion Papers 11714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2017. "Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 2017/250, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Baltensperger,Ernst & Kugler,Peter, 2017. "Swiss Monetary History since the Early 19th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107199309, November.
    14. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    15. Rebecca Stuart, 2019. "UK shocks and Irish business cycles, 1922–79," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(2), pages 618-640, May.
    16. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas J. Jordan, 1998. "Are there Shifts in the Output-Inflation Trade-off? The Case of Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(II), pages 121-132, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gillman, Max & Benk, Szilard & Csabafi, Tamas, 2023. "Supply-side economics with AS-AD in Ramsey dynamic general equilibrium," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 505-531.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "A quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963–2016," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 78-86.
    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    3. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    4. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
    5. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    7. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Lucyna Gornicka, 2020. "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?," IMF Working Papers 2020/024, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Dmitry Kulikov & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2016. "Identifying Shocks in Structural VAR models via heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 19 Feb 2016.
    9. Gerlach, Stefan, 2017. "Long-run Money Demand in Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 12356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. John P. Judd & Bharat Trehan, 1989. "Unemployment-rate dynamics: aggregate-demand and -supply interactions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 20-37.
    12. Li, Mengheng & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2024. "Dynamic hysteresis effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    13. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    15. Abouwafia, Hashem E. & Chambers, Marcus J., 2015. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 14-28.
    16. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
    17. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    18. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    19. Ionuț JIANU, 2016. "A comprehensive view on the manifestations of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 207-224, Summer.
    20. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Switzerland; Aggregate supply and demand; Long time series; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:158:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-022-00096-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.