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Credit Booms—Is China Different?

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  • Ms. Sally Chen
  • Mr. Joong S Kang

Abstract

Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom carries risks. International experience suggests that China’s credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory, with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment and/or a marked growth slowdown. Several China-specific factors—high savings, current account surplus, small external debt, and various policy buffers—can help mitigate near-term risks of a disruptive adjustment and buy time to address risks. But, if the risks are left unaddressed, these mitigating factors will likely not eliminate the eventual adjustment, but make the boom larger and last longer. Hence, decisive policy action is needed to deflate the credit boom safely.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Sally Chen & Mr. Joong S Kang, 2018. "Credit Booms—Is China Different?," IMF Working Papers 2018/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kumhof, Michael & Sokol, Andrej & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2020. "How Does International Capital Flow?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2021. "Leverage and systemic risk pro-cyclicality in the Chinese financial system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nivorozhkin, Eugene & Chondrogiannis, Ilias, 2022. "Shifting balances of systemic risk in the Chinese banking sector: Determinants and trends," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Narottam Gaan, 2021. "Twenty-First-Century Hyper-power, China or USA: Is Demography the Determinant?," Jadavpur Journal of International Relations, , vol. 25(2), pages 143-166, December.
    7. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.
    8. Guangdong Xu & Binwei Gui, 2021. "The non‐linearity between finance and economic growth: a literature review and evidence from China," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 3-18, May.

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