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Brazilian Business Cycle Analysis in a High-Dimensional and Time-Irregular Span Context

Author

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  • André Nunes Maranhão

    (Getulio Vargas Foundation São Paulo School of Economics
    Credit Board - Bank of Brasil)

Abstract

A recent challenge in business cycle analysis is high-dimensional databases with time-irregular span of available time-series starting points (TISN). Using the Brazilian business cycle, this study proposes a hyper-dimension environment entropic test of relative information, and develops a time-irregular span version for the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) of Forni et al. (Rev Econ Stat, 82(4):540–554, 2000). We estimate the GDFM model and its version for time-irregular series (TISN-GDFM) using 2571 series from January 1980 to December 2017. The results show that the TISN-GDFM model has gained commonality over time, better describing the Brazilian business cycle. The results show a larger set of time series selected in the current quarter than in the other lags, concentrated in categories related to Confidence and Surveys, Credit, Industry, Sectoral, and Financial series. We categorize the series for a better description of the Brazilian business cycle. The estimated Brazilian business cycle with TISN-GDFM shows evidence of high commonality for the retail category, being pro-cyclical, and leading. Analyzing the disaggregated series, the pro-cyclical and antecedent behavior of credit default and delays are highlighted. Considering only the chronologically complete series, we estimate the GDFM model. The dimension reduction test results show the use of a large portion of all available series. The estimated Brazilian business cycle has had Climate and Industry categories with the highest commonality. As new series are incorporated into the TISN-GDFM model, better adjustment of the estimated cycle is verified. When incorporating new series, there is a significant improvement in the description of the Brazilian business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • André Nunes Maranhão, 2024. "Brazilian Business Cycle Analysis in a High-Dimensional and Time-Irregular Span Context," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 1-58, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:20:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-024-00095-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-024-00095-7
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    Keywords

    Brazilian business cycle; Hyper-dimensional entropic relative information test; Generalized dynamic factor model; Time-irregular span;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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