IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/19970014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Camiel de Koning

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Stefan Straetmans

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

We investigate the potential presence of time variation in the coefficients of the ''Fama regression'' for Uncovered InterestRate Parity. We implement coefficient constancy tests, rolling regression techniques, and stochastic coefficient modelsbased on state space modelling. Among six major US bilateral exchange rates we find significant evidence for stochastictime variation.Using the statistical equivalence between stochastically varying coefficients and conditional heteroscedasticity we derivea proxy for time-varying 'risk', and investigate whether it explains the well known "negative bias" or "foreign discount biaspuzzle" in the foreign exchange rate literature. We contrast our identification scheme to the ARCH-in-mean approach forempirically identifying risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Camiel de Koning & Stefan Straetmans, 1997. "Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-014/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:19970014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/97014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    4. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-636, September.
    5. Chiang, Thomas C, 1988. "The Forward Rate as a Predictor of the Future Spot Rate--A Stochastic Coefficient Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 212-232, May.
    6. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    7. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    9. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-184, January.
    10. Lee, Tom K., 1988. "Does conditional covariance or conditional variance explain time varying risk premia in foreign exchange returns?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 371-373.
    11. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    12. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    13. Pagan, Adrian, 1980. "Some identification and estimation results for regression models with stochastically varying coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-363, August.
    14. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:307-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December.
    17. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 409-423, December.
    2. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 409-423, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Chiang & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2005. "International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 295-312, May.
    2. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    4. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    5. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    7. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
    8. Zhu, Zhen, 2002. "Time-varying forward bias and the expected excess return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 119-137, April.
    9. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    10. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141062, HAL.
    11. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    13. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
    16. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    17. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
    18. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    19. Winston T. Lin, 1999. "Dynamic and Stochastic Instability and the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: A Variable Mean Response Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 173-221, September.
    20. Luca Benati, 2006. "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England.
    21. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Recent estimates of time-variation in the conditional variance and in the exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:19970014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.