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Firm Profitability: Mean-Reverting or Random-Walk Behavior?

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Canarella

    (California State University, Los Angeles and University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Nevada, Las Vegas and University of Connecticut)

  • Mahmoud M. Nourayi

    (Loyola Marymount University)

Abstract

We analyze the stochastic properties of three measures of profitability, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on investment (ROI), using a balanced panel of US firms during the period 2001-2010. We employ a panel unit-root approach, which assists in identifying competitive outcomes versus situations that require regulatory intervention to achieve more competitive outcomes. Based upon conventional panel unit-root tests, we find substantial evidence supporting mean-reversion, which, in turn, lends support to the long-standing “competitive environment” hypothesis originally set forward by Mueller (1976). These results, however, prove contaminated by the assumption of cross-section independence. After controlling for cross-section dependence, we find that profitability evolves as a non-stationary process in some sectors in the US economy. Our findings, especially taken as a whole, remain fairly robust to various assumptions regarding the underlying data generation process.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Mahmoud M. Nourayi, 2012. "Firm Profitability: Mean-Reverting or Random-Walk Behavior?," Working papers 2012-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2012-05
    Note: Stephen M. Miller is corresponding author
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    4. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Alexiou, Constantinos & Parthenidis, Thanasis, 2015. "Revisiting profit persistence and the stock market in Japan," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 10-24.
    5. M. E. Bontempi & L. Bottazzi & R. Golinelli, 2015. "Dynamic corporate capital structure behavior: empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity," Working Papers wp988, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    6. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2016. "Local Power of Fixed-T Panel Unit Root Tests With Serially Correlated Errors and Incidental Trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 222-239, March.
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    8. Jaiswall, Sudhir Shiv Kumar & Bhattacharyya, Asish Kumar, 2016. "Corporate governance and CEO compensation in Indian firms," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 159-175.
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    12. Yiannis Karavias & Elias Tzavalis, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in panels with structural changes, spatial and temporal dependence when the time dimension is finite," Discussion Papers 14/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    13. Ferhan Emir Tuncay & Hulya Cengiz, 2017. "The Relationship between Corporate Profitability and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from 500 Largest Industrial Organizations in Turkey," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(9), pages 87-95, September.
    14. Kevin Pacini & Peter Mayer & Stefan Attar & Jean Azam, 2017. "Macroeconomic Factors And Firm Performance In The United Kingdom," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 1-11, December.
    15. I-Cheng Yeh & Yi-Cheng Liu, 2023. "Exploring the growth value equity valuation model with data visualization," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, December.
    16. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Cuellar-Fernández, Beatriz & Fuertes-Callén, Yolanda, 2023. "Pathways to self-sufficiency in the microfinance ecosystem," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 262-273.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross-sectional dependence; unit roots; panel data; hysteresis; firm profitability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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