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Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Borio
  • Mathias Drehmann
  • Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora

Abstract

Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about how well they signal recession risks. We run a horse race between the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the literature - and a range of financial cycle measures. Unlike most papers, ours assesses forecasting performance not just for the United States but also for a panel of advanced and emerging market economies. We find that financial cycle measures have significant forecasting power both in and out of sample, even for a three-year horizon. Moreover, they outperform the term spread in nearly all specifications. These results are robust to different recession specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana & Elisa Ossola, 2023. "Green risk in Europe," Working Papers 526, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    3. Ojo, Marianne, 2024. "Inflationary impacts since the Global Pandemic Crisis: the potential of forecasting techniques and technologies," MPRA Paper 120515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ojo, Marianne & Roedl, Marianne, 2020. "Uncertain accommodative policies as tools for financial stability: recent developments," MPRA Paper 102231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    6. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    7. Shengnan Lv & Zeshui Xu & Xuecheng Fan & Yong Qin & Marinko Skare, 2023. "The mean reversion/persistence of financial cycles: Empirical evidence for 24 countries worldwide," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 11-47, March.
    8. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Morana, Claudio, 2024. "A new macro-financial condition index for the euro area," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-87.
    10. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    11. Ojo, Marianne, 2024. "Addressing current inflation levels through green energy technologies and techniques: recent developments," MPRA Paper 120514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tran, Thuy Nhung, 2022. "The Volatility of the Stock Market and Financial Cycle: GARCH Family Models," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 151-168.
    13. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. M S, Navaneeth, 2021. "Business Cycles, Inflation and Unemployment: An MMT perspective," MPRA Paper 115352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial cycle; term spread; recession risk; panel probit mode;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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