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Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis

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  • Strohsal, Till
  • Proaño Acosta, Christian
  • Wolters, Jürgen

Abstract

A growing body of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time. This paper proposes an empirical approach suitable to test these hypothe- ses. We parametrically estimate the whole spectrum of financial and real variables to obtain a complete picture of their cyclical properties. We provide strong statistical evidence for the US and slightly weaker evidence for the UK validating the hypothesized features of the financial cycle. In Germany, however, the financial cycle is, if at all, much less visible.

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  • Strohsal, Till & Proaño Acosta, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2015-021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Cycle; Business Cycle; Indirect Spectrum Estimation; Bootstrapping Inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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