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Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer

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  • Raffaele Mattera

    (University of Naples ”Federico II)

Abstract

Several studies deal with the development of advanced statistical methods for predicting football match results. These predictions are then used to construct profitable betting strategies. Even if the most popular bets are based on whether one expects that a team will win, lose, or draw in the next game, nowadays a variety of other outcomes are available for betting purposes. While some of these events are binary in nature (e.g. the red cards occurrence), others can be seen as binary outcomes. In this paper we propose a simple framework, based on score-driven models, able to obtain accurate forecasts for binary outcomes in soccer matches. To show the usefulness of the proposed statistical approach, two experiments to the English Premier League and to the Italian Serie A are provided for predicting red cards occurrence, Under/Over and Goal/No Goal events.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaele Mattera, 2023. "Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 115-134, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:325:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04224-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04224-8
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    3. Fan Xiaoyu & Wang Shasha, 2024. "Evaluating the pinnacle of football match key statistics as in‐play information for determining the match outcome of Europe's foremost leagues," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 105(3), pages 775-799, May.

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