IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v49y2022i3d10.1007_s10663-022-09546-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trading Kuznets curve: empirical analysis for China

Author

Listed:
  • Ercan Yasar

    (Dumlupinar University)

  • Güray Akalin

    (Dumlupinar University)

  • Sinan Erdogan

    (Hatay Mustafa Kemal University)

  • Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie

    (Nord University Business School (HHN))

Abstract

Due to inspiring growth over the past 20 years, the dynamics of Chinese exports have been the focus of many researchers. In contrast to current literature, this study examines the quadratic relationship between China’s real exports to 154 partner countries and the income of trading partners from 1996 to 2019. The findings obtained from the second generational econometric analysis confirm cross-section dependence and heterogeneous slope among panel members. Second, while the GDP per capita of partner countries has a positive impact on China’s exports, the quadratic of GDP per capita has a negative impact. These findings indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between China’s exports and GDP per capita of its partner countries—thus, validating the trading Kuznets curve (TKC) hypothesis. The appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) has statistically significant negative effects on China’s exports. From a policy perspective, Chinese policymakers could consider the TKC hypothesis when determining market and export strategies. Additionally, the Chinese monetary authority could consider stabilizing the value of the RMB.

Suggested Citation

  • Ercan Yasar & Güray Akalin & Sinan Erdogan & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, 2022. "Trading Kuznets curve: empirical analysis for China," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 741-768, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:49:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-022-09546-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-022-09546-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-022-09546-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-022-09546-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    2. Sylvie Laforet & Junsong Chen, 2012. "Chinese and British consumers’ evaluation of Chinese and international brands and factors affecting their choice," Post-Print hal-02312318, HAL.
    3. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    4. Jong Woo Kang & Suzette Dagli, 2018. "International trade and exchange rates," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 84-105, January.
    5. Chihwa Kao & Min‐Hsien Chiang & Bangtian Chen, 1999. "International R&D Spillovers: An Application of Estimation and Inference in Panel Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 691-709, November.
    6. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2011. "Income Distribution, Product Quality, and International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 721-765.
    7. Wenwu Xie & Tianhang Xue, 2020. "FDI and Improvements in the Quality of Export Products in the Chinese Manufacturing Industry," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(13), pages 3106-3116, October.
    8. Isha Agarwal & Rupa Duttagupta & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2020. "Commodity Prices And Bank Lending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 953-979, April.
    9. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    10. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2005. "Cross-Section Regression with Common Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1551-1585, September.
    11. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    12. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    14. Bertrand Gruss & Suhaib Kebhaj, 2019. "Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/021, International Monetary Fund.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, March.
    16. Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, Sheila & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Export diversification and structural dynamics in the growth process: The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 375-391, April.
    17. Brambilla, Irene & Porto, Guido G., 2016. "High-income export destinations, quality and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 21-35.
    18. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    19. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:691-709 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. He, Dong & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-104, February.
    21. David Hummels & Alexandre Skiba, 2004. "Shipping the Good Apples Out? An Empirical Confirmation of the Alchian-Allen Conjecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1384-1402, December.
    22. Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, March.
    23. Pham Trang Huyen My & Nasir Muhammad Ali, 2016. "Conspicuous Consumption, Luxury Products and Counterfeit Market in the UK," The European Journal of Applied Economics, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 72-83, April.
    24. Lichtenstein, Donald R & Bloch, Peter H & Black, William C, 1988. "Correlates of Price Acceptability," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 15(2), pages 243-252, September.
    25. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March.
    26. Baek, Jungho & Nam, Soojoong, 2021. "The South Korea–China trade and the bilateral real exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from 33 industries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 463-475.
    27. Abdul K. M. Azhar & Robert J. R. Elliott, 2006. "On the Measurement of Product Quality in Intra-Industry Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(3), pages 476-495, October.
    28. Ali Acaravci & Guray Akalin, 2017. "Environment economic Growth Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 34-43.
    29. Nasrullah, Muhammad & Chang, Liu & Khan, Khalid & Rizwanullah, Muhammad & Zulfiqar, Farah & Ishfaq, Muhammad, 2020. "Determinants of forest product group trade by gravity model approach: A case study of China," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    30. Yu, Linhui & Zhao, Dan & Niu, Haixia & Lu, Futao, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative expand China's export potential to countries along the belt and road?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    31. Juan Carlos Hallak & Peter K. Schott, 2011. "Estimating Cross-Country Differences in Product Quality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 417-474.
    32. Sarafidis, Vasilis & Yamagata, Takashi & Robertson, Donald, 2009. "A test of cross section dependence for a linear dynamic panel model with regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 149-161, February.
    33. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    34. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2013. "No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 914-939, December.
    35. Alberto Chong, 2004. "Inequality, Democracy, and Persistence: Is There a Political Kuznets Curve?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, July.
    36. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    37. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Gravity models in integrated panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 435-446, October.
    38. Barney, Jay B. & Zhang, Shujun, 2008. "Collective Goods, Free Riding and Country Brands: The Chinese Experience," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 211-223, July.
    39. Xinyu Hou & Yingying Shi & Puyang Sun, 2021. "Foreign Entry Liberalization And Export Quality: Evidence From China," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 205-219, January.
    40. Anna Ray & Antoine Vatan, 2013. "Demand for Luxury Goods in a World of Income Disparities," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00959398, HAL.
    41. Hwang, Yeseul & Choe, Youngchan, 2016. "The consumption pattern of convenience food: A comparison of different income levels in South Korea," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236038, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    42. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, April.
    43. Anna Ray & Antoine Vatan, 2013. "Demand for Luxury Goods in a World of Income Disparities," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS hal-00959398, HAL.
    44. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Large Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence: A Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 4371, CESifo.
    45. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, June.
    46. Anna Ray & Antoine Vatan, 2013. "Demand for Luxury Goods in a World of Income Disparities," Working Papers hal-00959398, HAL.
    47. Smith, Travis A. & Huang, Chung L. & Lin, Biing-Hwan, 2009. "Does Price or Income Affect Organic Choice? Analysis of U.S. Fresh Produce Users," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 731-744, December.
    48. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    49. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, 2011. "Income Distribution, Product Quality and International Trade," 2011 Meeting Papers 415, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    50. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
    51. Brécard, Dorothée & Hlaimi, Boubaker & Lucas, Sterenn & Perraudeau, Yves & Salladarré, Frédéric, 2009. "Determinants of demand for green products: An application to eco-label demand for fish in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 115-125, November.
    52. Thorbecke, Willem, 2011. "Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on china's processed exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 33-46, June.
    53. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "Empirical analysis of import demand behavior of least developed countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1443-1458.
    54. Hummels, David & Lee, Kwan Yong, 2018. "The income elasticity of import demand: Micro evidence and an application," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 20-34.
    55. Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages 325-347, September.
    56. Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle, 2014. "Low-wage country competition and the quality content of high-wage country exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 140-152.
    57. Richard Newfarmer & William Shaw & Peter Walkenhorst, 2009. "Breaking Into New Markets," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2616.
    58. Zhijie Guan & Jim Kwee Fat Ip Ping Sheong, 2020. "Determinants of bilateral trade between China and Africa: a gravity model approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(5), pages 1015-1038, April.
    59. Gale, H. Frederick, Jr. & Buzby, Jean C., 2009. "Imports From China and Food Safety Issues," Economic Information Bulletin 58620, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    60. Erickson, Gary M & Johansson, Johny K, 1985. "The Role of Price in Multi-attribute Product Evaluations," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 12(2), pages 195-199, September.
    61. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    62. Fengbao Yin & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Estimating the import demand function in the autoregressive distributed lag framework: The case of China," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1576-1591.
    63. Erdogan, Sinan & Akalin, Guray & Oypan, Oguz, 2020. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption transitory or permanent in Turkey? New evidence from fourier panel KPSS test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    64. Jay B. Barney & Shujun Zhang, 2008. "Collective Goods, Free Riding and Country Brands: The Chinese Experience," Management and Organization Review, The International Association for Chinese Management Research, vol. 4(2), pages 211-223, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erdogan, Sinan, 2024. "Linking green fiscal policy, energy, economic growth, population dynamics, and environmental degradation: Empirical evidence from Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Erdogan, Sinan, 2024. "On the impact of natural resources on environmental sustainability in African countries: A comparative approach based on the EKC and LCC hypotheses," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Qingnian Wang & Shiyi Chen & Yunpei Wang, 2023. "An Empirical Study on the Impact of Digital Economy Innovation Development on the Export Quality of Chinese Electromechanical Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Bochao Zhang & Wanhao Dong & Jin Yao & Xiaolong Cheng, 2023. "Digital Economy, Factor Allocation Efficiency of Dual-Economy and Urban-Rural Income Gap," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-30, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a survey," Globalization Institute Working Papers 153, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Martin, Julien & Mayneris, Florian, 2015. "High-end variety exporters defying gravity: Micro facts and aggregate implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 55-71.
    3. Vasilis Sarafidis & Tom Wansbeek, 2012. "Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data Analysis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 483-531, September.
    4. Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2017. "Financial imperfections, product quality, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 63-84.
    5. Sinan Erdogan & Ali Acaravci, 2022. "On the Nexus Between Institutions and Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan African Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(4), pages 1857-1892, August.
    6. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2018. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 59-76.
    7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2016. "Estimation of heterogeneous panels with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 176-195.
    8. Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Product Quality, and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 10555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ali Acaravci & Seyfettin Artan & Pinar Hayaloglu & Sinan Erdogan, 2023. "Economic and Institutional Determinants of Corruption: The Case of Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 207-231, March.
    10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2012. "A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 164-177.
    11. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.
    13. Sencer Atasoy, Burak, 2017. "Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across the U.S.: Evidence from panel mean group estimators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 731-747.
    14. Antoine Gervais, 2015. "Product quality, firm heterogeneity and trade liberalization," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 523-541, June.
    15. Georgios Gioldasis & Antonio Musolesi & Michel Simioni, 2020. "Model uncertainty, nonlinearities and out-of-sample comparison: evidence from international technology diffusion," Working Papers hal-02790523, HAL.
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    17. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    18. Hussein Moghaddam & Robert M. Kunst, 2023. "The Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Major Gas-Producing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Bin Peng & Giovanni Forchini, 2012. "Consistent Estimation of Panel Data Models with a Multi-factor Error Structure," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0112, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    20. A. Auer, Raphael & Chaney, Thomas & Sauré, Philip, 2018. "Quality pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 87-102.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Exports; GDP per capita; Exchange rates; Trading Kuznets curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:49:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-022-09546-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.