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Economic Uncertainty and Bank Lending

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  • WEI‐SHAO WU
  • SANDY SUARDI

Abstract

This paper shows that economic uncertainty proxied by the variance risk premium (VRP) has an important explanatory power for bank credit supply and demand. Higher VRP exerts a negative influence on both loan demand and supply, increases loan spreads, reduces loan size and maturity, and increases the proportion of collateralized loans. These effects are substantive in the syndicated loan market and are worse off during economic recessions. Upon isolating the effect of uncertainty on bank credit supply from loan demand, we find that VRP dominates credit supply, which suggests that bank credit shortages can potentially aggravate economic downturn during recessions.

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  • Wei‐Shao Wu & Sandy Suardi, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Bank Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2037-2069, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:8:p:2037-2069
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12779
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    2. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez & Bernardus F. Nazar Van Doornik & João Barata R. B. Barroso, 2024. "Macroprudential, Monetary Policy Synergies and Credit Supply: evidence from matched bank-firm loan-level data in Brazil," Working Papers Series 607, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," Staff Reports 1076, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Kim, Youngju & Lee, Seohyun & Lim, Hyunjoon, 2023. "Uncertainty, credit and investment: Evidence from firm-bank matched data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Grimme, Christian & Henzel, Steffen R., 2024. "Uncertainty and credit conditions: Non-linear evidence from firm-level data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1307-1323.
    6. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).

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