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Some Facts About the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone

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  • Frederico Belo

Abstract

In the context of a single currency and a common monetary policy defined by the European Central Bank for the euro area as a whole, it is important to evaluate the degree of business cycle resemblance among the participant countries. We resort to the association and synchronization concepts to define cyclical convergence. Using a time domain approach, we purport to use several parametric and non-parametric statistics to investigate whether the cycles of these countries have converged to the euro area business cycle during the sample period. The results obtained are in line with those from previous studies and suggest that Italy, Spain, Austria, the Netherlands, Portugal and Greece have cyclically converged to the euro area business cycle. Regarding the United Kingdom, the evidence suggests the existence of a strong degree of association with the euro zone, exhibiting however a lead cycle in the more recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Belo, 2001. "Some Facts About the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone," Working Papers w200107, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Lemoine, 2006. "Annex A5 : A model of the stochastic convergence between euro area business cycles," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972793, HAL.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    3. Lefteris Tsoulfidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2007. "Estimating Capacity Utilization Using a SVAR Model: An Application to the US and Canadian Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-12.
    4. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    6. Gandjon Fankem, Gislain Stéphane & Fouda Mbesa, Lucien Cédric, 2023. "Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Claudio Barbieri & Mattia Guerini & Mauro Napoletano, 2021. "The Anatomy of Government Bond Yields Synchronization in the Eurozone," LEM Papers Series 2021/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Siem Jan Koopman & João Valle E Azevedo, 2008. "Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area, UK and US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 23-51, February.
    9. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2003. "Scope of asymmetries in the Euro area," Working Paper Document 37, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1461 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1461 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    13. Holtemöller, Oliver (Ed.) & Rahn, Jörg (Ed.) & Stierle, Michael H. (Ed.), 2009. "Characteristics of Business Cycles: Have they Changed?," IWH-Sonderhefte 5/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2022. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Papers 2206.14128, arXiv.org.
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1461 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Matthieu Lemoine, 2005. "A model of the stochastic convergence between business cycles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:4:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1461 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Frederico Belo, 2001. "Some Facts about the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Anna Solms & Bernd Süssmuth, 2022. "Business cycle characteristics of Mediterranean economies: a secular trend and cycle dynamics perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 825-862, October.

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