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The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices: Evidence From Developing Countries

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  • Ms. Magda E. Kandil
  • Ida Aghdas Mirzaie

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Anticipated exchange rate depreciation, through the supply channel, has limited effects on output growth and inflation. Unanticipated currency fluctuations appear more significant, with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Magda E. Kandil & Ida Aghdas Mirzaie, 2003. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices: Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/200, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/200
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    Cited by:

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    2. Viktor Shevchuk, 2017. "The Impact of Anticipated and Unanticipated Exchange Rate Variability in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 241, pages 33-46.
    3. Jalib Sikandar, Muhammad & Muhammad Yasin, Hafiz & Muhammad, Malik, 2019. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Workers’ Remittances: Empirical Bayesian Approach," Journal of Quantitative Methods, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan, vol. 3(2), pages 90-109.
    4. Magda Kandil & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2008. "The Impact Of Capital and Remittance Flows on Economic Performance in MENA Countries," Working Papers 440, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    5. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    6. Sajid Ali, 2016. "How does Interest rate effect Exchange rate of Pakistan. Evidence of ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 119-133, October.
    7. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility and Global Shocks in South Africa," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(3), pages 178-193, JUNE.
    8. Magda Kandil & Ida Mirzaie, 2006. "Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 469-491.
    9. Zakee SAADAT & Dawood MAMOON, 2016. "Destination EU and USA: Improving Export Potential of Pakistan by Trading with India," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 659-669, December.
    10. Hussain, Karrar, 2009. "Causal Ordering Between Inflation and Productivity of Labor and Capital: An Empirical Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jameelah Omolara Yaqub, 2013. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Disaggregated Agricultural Output in Nigeria: A Two-Stage-Least-Squares Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 6(1), pages 75-89, April.
    12. Harold Ngalawa & Adebayo Augustine Kutu, 2017. "Modelling exchange rate variations and global shocks in Brazil," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 73-95.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; currency appreciation; price inflation; aggregate demand; exchange rate; anticipated vs. unanticipated appreciation; supply vs. demand channels; real and inflationary effects; exchange rate fluctuation; energy price; error correction term; currency depreciation; output price; price deflation; Fluctuationson output; money supply; price surprise; production function; energy price increase; Exchange rates; Currencies; Inflation; Real exchange rates; Energy pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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