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Oil price volatility and the US stock market

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  • Sajjadur Rahman

    (Texas A&M University-San Antonio)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between oil price volatility and US real stock returns using a multivariate framework in which a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) is modified to accommodate the effects of stochastic volatility (SV) in oil prices on stock returns. Our measure of oil price volatility is the conditional variance of the oil price change forecast error. We isolate the effects of volatility in the change in the price of oil on real stock returns and calculate the dynamic responses of stock returns to a shock to oil price volatility. We find evidence that increased oil price volatility has a negative effect on US real stock returns. We support our evidence with the transmission mechanism that details on how the effects of oil price volatility shocks might be channeled into the stock market. Our results remain unchanged in the context of the disaggregate returns for a number of industry portfolios, suggesting that investors should consider oil price volatility in addition to other potential factors that affect stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sajjadur Rahman, 2021. "Oil price volatility and the US stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1461-1489, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-020-01906-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-01906-3
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil-Price Uncertainty and International Stock Returns: Dissecting Quantile-Based Predictability and Spillover Effects Using More than a Century of Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.
    4. Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng & Joshua Nielsen, 2023. "Predicting Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Stock Market Bubbles in a Panel of G7 Countries: The Role of Oil Price Uncertainty," Working Papers 202332, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Priya, Pragati & Pal, Debdatta, 2024. "Does crude oil price volatility respond asymmetrically to financial shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Cai, Lu & Le, Thanh Tiep, 2023. "Natural resources and financial development: Role of corporate social responsibility on green economic growth in Vietnam," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Mao, Zhouheng & Wang, Hui & Bibi, Sidra, 2024. "Crude oil volatility spillover and stock market returns across the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic periods: An empirical study of China, US, and India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Zhao, Dong & Sibt e-Ali, Muhammad & Omer Chaudhry, Muhammad & Ayub, Bakhtawer & Waqas, Muhammad & Ullah, Irfan, 2024. "Modeling the Nexus between geopolitical risk, oil price volatility and renewable energy investment; evidence from Chinese listed firms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    9. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2022. "Oil Price Uncertainty Shocks and Global Equity Markets: Evidence from a GVAR Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, August.
    10. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Mensi, Walid & Anik, Kaysul Islam & Rahman, Mishkatur & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "The impacts of COVID-19 crisis on spillovers between the oil and stock markets: Evidence from the largest oil importers and exporters," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 345-372.
    11. Liu, Fang & Umair, Muhammad & Gao, Junjun, 2023. "Assessing oil price volatility co-movement with stock market volatility through quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E.Oghonna & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "Energy Market Uncertainties and US State-Level Stock Market Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202409, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Zhang, Yonggang & Hyder, Mansoor & Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali & Qian, Chong & Berk Saydaliev, Hayot, 2022. "Nexus between oil price volatility and inflation: Mediating nexus from exchange rate," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    15. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2021. "The Effect of Oil Price Uncertainty Shock on International Equity Markets: Evidence from a GVAR Model," Working Papers 202160, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil; Stochastic volatility; Structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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