IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/amstas/293071.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model Selection Test Procedues In A Single Linear Equation Of A Dynamic Simultaneous System And Their Defects In Small Samples

Author

Listed:
  • Kiviet, Jan

Abstract

A variety of asymptotically valid tests for orthogonality, serial correlation, predictive failure, and of coefficient restrictions are presented, and their rejection probabilities are assessed in linear structural models with lagged-dependent and (possibly) jointly dependent variables by Monte Carlo methods. For all test procedures the small-sample distribution under the null usually deviates substantially from the asymptotic distribution; this impedes their use in a reliable model selection strategy for econometric time-series analysis. Despite the harassing dependence of type I errors on factors generally unknown to the practitioner, inconsistencies originating from specification errors or from disregarded simultaneity may be detected by particular tests in particular situations. From this study some clues emerge on how to interpret (in)significant values of the various test statistics.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Kiviet, Jan, 1984. "Model Selection Test Procedues In A Single Linear Equation Of A Dynamic Simultaneous System And Their Defects In Small Samples," University of Amsterdam, Actuarial Science and Econometrics Archive 293071, University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:amstas:293071
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.293071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/293071/files/amsterdam047.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.293071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-750, July.
    2. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
    3. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1980. "An Empirical Application and Monte Carlo Analysis of Tests of Dynamic Specification," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 21-45.
    4. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1979. "Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear, implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 275-302.
    5. HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, 1983. "The econometric analysis of economic time series," LIDAM Reprints CORE 531, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    7. Davidson, James E. H. & Hendry, David F., 1981. "Interpreting econometric evidence : The behaviour of consumers' expenditure in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 177-192.
    8. Nakamura, Alice & Nakamura, Masao, 1981. "On the Relationships among Several Specification Error Tests Presented by Durbin, Wu, and Hausman," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1583-1588, November.
    9. White, Halbert, 1982. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Independent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 483-499, March.
    10. Hendry, David F., 1979. "The behaviour of inconsistent instrumental variables estimators in dynamic systems with autocorrelated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-314, February.
    11. Adrian R Pagan & Anthony D Hall, 1983. "Diagnostic tests as residual analysis," Published Paper Series 1983-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
    2. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Export supply, capacity and relative prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 81-100, October.
    3. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    4. Riccardo Faini & Jaime De Melo & Abdelhak Senhadji & Julie Stanton, 2015. "Growth-Oriented Adjustment Programs: A Statistical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 5, pages 125-135, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Klinedinst, Mark, 1991. "Inside the black box: compensation structures of efficient Yugoslavian firms," MPRA Paper 36305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pasula, Kit, 1997. "Monetary Non-Neutrality and the Intertemporal Approach to the Balance of Trade: The UK Trade Balance under Bretton Woods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 333-347, August.
    8. Ronald Cotterill & William Putsis, 2000. "Market Share and Price Setting Behavior for Private Labels and National Brands," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 17(1), pages 17-39, August.
    9. Klinedinst, Mark, 1991. "Are CEO's paid their marginal product? An empirical analysis of executive compensation and corporate performance," MPRA Paper 36650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    11. Daveri, Francesco & Faini, Riccardo, 1999. "Where Do Migrants Go?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 595-622, October.
    12. J. Thornton & P. Molyneux, 1996. "Unanticipated income and consumption in ASEAN countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 247-249.
    13. Kiviet, Jan F. & Pleus, Milan, 2017. "The performance of tests on endogeneity of subsets of explanatory variables scanned by simulation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 1-21.
    14. Cable, John R. & Wilson, Nicholas, 1988. "Profit-Sharing And Productivity: An Analysis Of Uk Engineering Firms," Economic Research Papers 268335, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    15. Cable, J.R. & Wilson, N., 1988. "Profit-Sharing And Productivity: An Analysis Of Uk Engineering Firms," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 300, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "Model Specification Tests and Artificial Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 102-146, March.
    2. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Econometric Modelling: The ‘Consumption Function’ In Retrospect," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 495-522, November.
    3. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-678, May.
    4. H. Peter Boswijk & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 1997. "Lagrance-multiplier tersts for weak exogeneity: a synthesis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 21-38.
    5. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    6. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin Sabro, 2012. "Specification Tests with Weak and Invalid Instruments," MPRA Paper 40185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 363-384, December.
    9. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2020. "Exogeneity tests, incomplete models, weak identification and non-Gaussian distributions: Invariance and finite-sample distributional theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 390-418.
    10. Guilhem Bascle, 2008. "Controlling for endogeneity with instrumental variables in strategic management research," Post-Print hal-00576795, HAL.
    11. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    12. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    13. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Jean‐Marie Dufour, 2014. "Identification‐robust inference for endogeneity parameters in linear structural models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 17(1), pages 165-187, February.
    14. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    15. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Lakka, Spyridoula & Michalakelis, Christos & Varoutas, Dimitris & Martakos, Draculis, 2012. "Exploring the determinants of the OSS market potential: The case of the Apache web server," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 51-68.
    17. repec:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:185:p:81-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Firmin Doko Tchatoka, 2015. "On bootstrap validity for specification tests with weak instruments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 137-146, February.
    19. Jan F. Kiviet, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(2), pages 241-261.
    20. John J. Beggs, 1988. "Diagnostic Testing in Applied Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(2), pages 81-101, June.
    21. Robert Mulligan, 1996. "Export-import endogeneity in the context of the Thirlwall- Hussain model: an application of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman test incorporating a Monte Carlo experiment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 275-279.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:amstas:293071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feuvanl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.