Combined Density Nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2018. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 131-145, January.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
References listed on IDEAS
- Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011.
"Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-44, February.
- Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages 25-44, February.
- Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Angelini, Elena & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Working Paper Series 949, European Central Bank.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
- Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2013. "Pooling Versus Model Selection For Nowcasting Gdp With Many Predictors: Empirical Evidence For Six Industrialized Countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 392-411, April.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005.
"The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
- Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "The generalised dynamic factor model: one sided estimation and forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10129, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Forni M. & Hallin M., 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 143, Society for Computational Economics.
- Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010.
"Combining inflation density forecasts,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
- Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016.
"Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers No 9/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013.
"Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001.
"Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Oct 2001.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008.
"Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2014.
"Estimating turning points using large data sets,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 368-381.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets," NBER Working Papers 16532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004.
"Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
- Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010.
"Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
- Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Anne-Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Paper 2008/01, Norges Bank.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Improving Forecast Accuracy By Combining Recursive And Rolling Forecasts,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 363-395, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Working Papers 2008-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 515-554, Elsevier.
- Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007.
"Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
- Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005. "Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Working Papers ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013.
"Markov-Switching MIDAS Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56, January.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gianni Amisano & John Geweke, 2017.
"Prediction Using Several Macroeconomic Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 912-925, December.
- Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2013. "Prediction using several macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 1537, European Central Bank.
- Malte Knüppel, 2015.
"Evaluating the Calibration of Multi-Step-Ahead Density Forecasts Using Raw Moments,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 270-281, April.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2011. "Evaluating the calibration of multi-step-ahead density forecasts using raw moments," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Watson, Mark W. & Stock, James H., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Scholarly Articles 33192198, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011.
"A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346, April.
- Bańbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346.
- Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.
- Marta Bańbura & Michele Modugno, 2014.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Factor Models On Datasets With Arbitrary Pattern Of Missing Data,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 133-160, January.
- Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "Maximum likelihood estimation of factor models on data sets with arbitrary pattern of missing data," Working Paper Series 1189, European Central Bank.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-474, October.
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011.
"Optimal prediction pools,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
- John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper series 22_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2009. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 1017, European Central Bank.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006.
"A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Stock, James & Watson, Mark & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008.
"A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark, 2011.
"Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 327-341, July.
- Clark, Todd E., 2011. "Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 327-341.
- Martin D. D. Evans, 2005.
"Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
- Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-time Estimates of the Macro Economy," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Evans, Martin D, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Evans, Martin D.D., 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin D.D. Evans, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," NBER Working Papers 11064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Evaluating, comparing and combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank of England and NIESR ÔfanÕ charts of inflation," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 253, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014.
"Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach," Working Papers No 1/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010.
"Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 216-230, April.
- Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2008. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of assets returns," Working Paper Series 969, European Central Bank.
- Hamilton, James D., 2011.
"Calling recessions in real time,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
- James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005.
"Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," MPRA Paper 836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
- James Mitchell & Stephen G. Hall, 2005. "Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR ‘Fan’ Charts of Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 995-1033, December.
- Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2004. "Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 550-565, December.
- Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
- Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Small, David, 2005.
"Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 633, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2015.
"Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo MATLAB Toolbox,"
Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i03).
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-055/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 Jan 2015.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," CREATES Research Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The DeCo Matlab Toolbox," Working Papers 2013:08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Harman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Parallel sequential Monte Carlo for efficient density combination: The DeCo MATLAB toolbox," Working Paper 2014/11, Norges Bank.
- Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2015.
"Markov-switching mixed-frequency VAR models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 692-711.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "A comparison of mixed frequency approaches for nowcasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 554-568.
- Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Evaluating, comparing and combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank of England and NIESR ÔfanÕ charts of inflation," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 253, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2006. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1133-1150, July.
- Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017.
"Density Forecasts With Midas Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 783-801, June.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Paper 2014/10, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Papers No 3/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014.
"Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach," Working Papers No 1/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
- Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012.
"Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data),"
Research Memorandum
021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Götz, T.B. & Hecq, A.W. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017.
"The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
- A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015.
"Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance,"
Working Paper
2015/12, Norges Bank.
- Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
- Rusnák, Marek, 2016.
"Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
- Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016.
"Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers No 9/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
- Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010.
"Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
- Anne-Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Paper 2008/01, Norges Bank.
- Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023.
"Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
- Edward Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: a model-combination approach," Working Papers 2015, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach," Working Papers 20-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
- Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014.
"Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024.
"Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
- McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
- Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
More about this item
Keywords
Density forecast combination; Survey forecast; Bayesian filtering; Sequential Monte Carlo Nowcasting; Real-time data;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2015-01-26 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2015-01-26 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2015-01-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-ORE-2015-01-26 (Operations Research)
- NEP-UPT-2015-01-26 (Utility Models and Prospect Theory)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2014_17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.