IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v79y2003i246p324-335.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?

Author

Listed:
  • A. J. Hagger
  • Nicolaas Groenewold

Abstract

We urge macroeconomists to abandon the ‘natural rate’ as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment rate, which can be compared with the actual unemployment rate. We integrate three hypothetical unemployment rates with the help of an exploratory macro model and then present a quarterly series for each for Australia for the period 1986(2) to 1997(2). We explain how such series could help in policy‐making.

Suggested Citation

  • A. J. Hagger & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 324-335, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:79:y:2003:i:246:p:324-335
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.00107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.00107
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-4932.00107?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Rogerson, 1997. "Theory Ahead of Language in the Economics of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 73-92, Winter.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, December.
    5. repec:bla:ausecp:v:39:y:2000:i:2:p:121-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jerome Fahrer & Andrew Pease, 1993. "The Unemployment‐Vacancy Relationship in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 26(4), pages 43-57, October.
    7. Nicolaas Groenewold & A J Hagger, 2000. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Australia: Estimates From a Structural Var," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 121-137, June.
    8. Jerome Fahrer & Andrew Pease, 1993. "The Unemployment/Vacancy Relationship in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9305, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    2. Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 779-792, June.
    3. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn, 2004. "ow Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n30, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Long-Run Shifts of the Beveridge Curve and the Frictional Unemployment Rate in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 65-82, March.
    2. A.J. Hagger & N. Groenewold, 2000. "Time to Ditch the Natural rate?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    4. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Guay Lim, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium rates of unemployment: an analysis with Australian data," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 10(4), pages 205-225.
    5. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Philip M. Bodman, 1999. "Labour Market Inefficiency and Frictional Unemployment in Australia and its States: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(2), pages 138-148, June.
    7. Salemi, Michael K, 1999. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Testing the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, Jan.-Feb..
    8. Renée Fry & James Hocking & Vance L. Martin, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 17-33, March.
    9. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    10. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Maciej Bukowski & Grzegorz Koloch & Piotr Lewandowski, 2013. "Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labour markets’ performance," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 553-581, July.
    12. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Do we know how low inflation should be?," IHEID Working Papers 06-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Fabiani, S. & Palenzuela-Rodriguez, D., 2001. "Model-Based Indicators of Labour Market Rigidity," Papers 57, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    14. Alex Durand, 2005. "Le chômage structurel dans une petite économie ouverte. Application au Luxembourg," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 105-126.
    15. Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    17. Anthony De Francesco, 1999. "The relationship between unemployment and vacancies in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 641-652.
    18. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
    19. Riedl, Arno & van Winden, Frans, 2007. "An experimental investigation of wage taxation and unemployment in closed and open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 871-900, May.
    20. Ines Perez-Soba Aguilar & Elena Marquez de la Cruz & Ana Rosa Martinez-Canete & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "Capital Stock and Unemployment: Searching for the Missing Link," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_475, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:79:y:2003:i:246:p:324-335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.