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Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?

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  • Bart Cockx
  • Muriel Dejemeppe

Abstract

On the basis of aggregate data for the early 1990s, we analyse the determinants of unemployment duration for laid‐off male workers in Wallonia (Belgium). Our results indicate that if ranking in recruitment occurs, the standard mixed proportional hazard specification can be too restrictive, leading to an overstatement of the extent of true negative duration dependence. We conclude that negative duration dependence is largely spurious. We also decompose the time variation of the hazard in (unobserved) compositional and direct cyclical and seasonal effects. We find counter‐cyclical variation in the quality of young workers, but none for the prime aged. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Bart Cockx & Muriel Dejemeppe, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:1:p:1-23
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.761
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    Cited by:

    1. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Andersen, Signe Hald, 2010. "The cost of sickness: On the effect of the duration of sick leave on post-sick leave earnings," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1589, May.
    3. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2012. "Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 646-675, October.
    4. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    5. Cockx, Bart, 1999. "The Design of Active Labour Market Policies. What Matters and What Doesn't ?," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1999035, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Wozniak, Marcin, 2016. "Job placement agencies in an artificial labor market," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-54.
    7. Van Belle, Eva & Caers, Ralf & De Couck, Marijke & Di Stasio, Valentina & Baert, Stijn, 2017. "Why Is Unemployment Duration a Sorting Criterion in Hiring?," IZA Discussion Papers 10876, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
    9. Bruno, VAN DER LINDEN, 2005. "Equilibrium Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programmes Enhancing Matching Effectiveness," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005007, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    10. Ana Luísa Abras & Fabiana de Felício, 2005. "Duração E Taxa De Saída Do Desemprego: Evidências De Ausência De Dependência Na Duração Para As Regiões Metropolitanas Do Brasil (1984-2000)," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 169, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Bemjamin Villena-Roldan, 2009. "Aggregate Implications of Employer Search and Recruiting Selection," 2009 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
    13. Muriel Dejemeppe, 2005. "A Complete Decomposition of Unemployment Dynamics using Longitudinal Grouped Duration Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 47-70, February.
    14. Gabriele Cardullo & Bruno Van der Linden, 2007. "Employment Subsidies and Substitutable Skills: An Equilibrium Matching Approach," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 53(4), pages 375-404.
    15. Ferdie Angelo A. Perante & Wilma A. Perante & Wilferd Jude A. Perante, 2023. "Unemployment Before–Amidst COVID-19: Shifts in the Predictive Factors of the Number of Weeks Spent Looking for Work," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(9), pages 2007-2017, September.
    16. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank.
    17. Andriopoulou Eirini & Karakitsios Alexandros, 2022. "Unemployment transitions and the role of minimum wage: From pre-crisis to crisis and recovery," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, January.
    18. Niedergesäss, Markus, 2013. "Employment, partnership and childbearing decisions of German women and men: A simultaneous hazards approach," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 51, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    19. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    20. Marie Duvivier & Maritza López-Novella, 2015. "Working Paper 10-15 - The relationship between unemployment duration and education - The case of school leavers in Belgium," Working Papers 1510, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    21. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    22. Jouko Verho, 2005. "Unemployment Duration and Business Cycles in Finland," Working Papers 214, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    23. Victoria Maleeva & Majlinda Joxhe & Skerdilajda Zanaj, 2020. "Poverty in Russia: the Role of the Marital Status and Gender," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-16, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.

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    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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