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The asymmetric effects of deflation on consumption spending: Evidence from the great depression

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  • Davis, J. Scott

Abstract

Using data for U.S. grocery and department store sales from 1919–1939, this paper shows that expected price changes have asymmetric effects on consumption spending. Department store sales (durable consumption) react negatively to expected deflation, but grocery sales (non-durable consumption) do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The asymmetric effects of deflation on consumption spending: Evidence from the great depression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 105-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:130:y:2015:i:c:p:105-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.03.016
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    7. Masahiro Hori & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2005. "Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 127-151, November.
    8. Cargill, Thomas F. & Parker, Elliott, 2004. "Price deflation and consumption: central bank policy and Japan's economic and financial stagnation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 493-506, June.
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    10. Leamer Edward E, 2011. "Deflation Dread Disorder "The CPI is Falling!"," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-5, February.
    11. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; Consumption; Durable goods; Non-durable goods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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