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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Li-gang Liu

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Andrew Tsang

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper estimates pass-through of exchange rate changes to domestic inflation in Hong Kong in a two-step approach. We first estimate exchange rate pass-through to import prices and then from import price to domestic inflation using a Phillips-Curve model. We find that Hong Kong¡¦s exchange rate pass-through to import prices is relatively high compared to the OECD average, although Hong Kong also witnessed a decline of pass-through after 1991. With respect to exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, we find that a 10% depreciation of the US dollar against all currencies except for the Hong Kong dollar would lead domestic prices to increase by 0.82 and 1.61 percent in the short run and medium run, respectively. These results are also broadly consistent with those obtained from a calibration exercise that estimates exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices via channels of the tradable and non-tradable goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Li-gang Liu & Andrew Tsang, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0802, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0802
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    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP08_02_full.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 139-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
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    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2002. "Macroeconomics of international price discrimination," Working Paper Series 176, European Central Bank.
    6. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
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    8. repec:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:2:p:191-216 is not listed on IDEAS
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    10. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, Jose M., 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the insensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," IESE Research Papers D/625, IESE Business School.
    12. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3-18.
    13. Li-gang Liu & Jian Chang & Andrew Tsang, 2006. "Forecasting the Non-Rental Component of Hong Kong's CCPI Inflation - an Indicator Approach," Working Papers 0603, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carsten A. Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2016. "Wage and Price Dynamics in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1109-1127, August.
    2. Arintoko, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through, import prices and inflation under structural breaks," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 3(1), pages 55-75, April.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mr. Siang Meng Tan & Ms. Joey Chew & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore," IMF Working Papers 2011/141, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ligang Liu & Andrew Tsang, 2008. "Pass‐through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China's Inflation: An Empirical Investigation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 22-34, November.
    6. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Pym Manopimoke, 2012. "Hong Kong Inflation Dynamics: Trend and Cycle Relationships with the U.S. and China," Working Papers 232012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Sanusi, Aliyu Rafindadi, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ghana: Evidence from structural vector auto-regression," MPRA Paper 29491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. M. A. Ivanova, 2016. "Analysis of the nature of cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and wage in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 575-584, September.
    11. Matthew Kofi Ocran, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices: The Case of South Africa," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 291-306.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Phillips Curve; Hong Kong;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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