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Timothy Cogley

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Modern macro models are falsifiable
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-02-06 02:19:14
    2. I must be crazy
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-12-19 03:24:01
  2. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What did Monty Python metaphors ever do for us?
      by Tony Yates in longandvariable on 2018-05-01 09:54:34
  3. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Krugman was looking under a lamppost
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-09-17 21:42:26
    2. Real Business Cycles with a Human Capital Investment Sector and Endogenous Growth: Persistence, Volatility and Labor Puzzles
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-04-15 00:22:54
    3. Sobre recesiones, recuperaciones…. y previsiones
      by David López-Salido in Nada Es Gratis on 2009-09-18 08:27:36
  4. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. [経済]A prophecy that misread could have been...
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-11-05 14:00:00
  5. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Bernanke: Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2007-07-11 01:08:00
  6. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Krugman was looking under a lamppost
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-09-17 21:42:26
    2. Real Business Cycles with a Human Capital Investment Sector and Endogenous Growth: Persistence, Volatility and Labor Puzzles
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-04-15 00:22:54
    3. Sobre recesiones, recuperaciones…. y previsiones
      by David López-Salido in Nada Es Gratis on 2009-09-18 08:27:36
  7. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.

    Mentioned in:

    1. On the Evils of Hodrick-Prescott Detrending
      by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2016-08-17 18:45:00

    Mentioned in:

    1. Wojciech Charemza
      by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 17:59:58
  8. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Thar be no data here!
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-09-15 09:40:45
  9. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II US Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. [経済]A prophecy that misread could have been...
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-11-05 14:00:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Macroeconomics > Economic Fluctuations > Real Business Cycle Theory
  2. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II US Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Time Varying Parameters and Stochastic Volatility

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US (AEJ:MA 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (AER 2008) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Timothy Cogley & Boyan Jovanovic, 2020. "Structural Breaks in an Endogenous Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 28026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Irsova & Hristos Doucouliagos & Tomas Havranek & T. D. Stanley, 2023. "Meta-Analysis of Social Science Research: A Practitioner´s Guide," Working Papers IES 2023/25, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2023.

  2. Blume, Lawrence E. & Cogley, Timothy & Easley, David A. & Sargent, Thomas J. & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2015. "A Case for Incomplete Markets," Economics Series 313, Institute for Advanced Studies.

    Cited by:

    1. Takashi Hayashi & Michele Lombardi, 2019. "Fair social decision under uncertainty and belief disagreements," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(4), pages 775-816, June.
    2. Eric Danan & Thibault Gajdos & Brian Hill & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2014. "Aggregating Tastes, Beliefs, and Attitudes under Uncertainty," Post-Print halshs-01099032, HAL.
    3. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-driven Business Cycles," Working Papers 161, Peruvian Economic Association.
    4. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Patrick Beissner & Frank Riedel, 2016. "Knight--Walras Equilibria," Papers 1605.04385, arXiv.org.
    6. Chabakauri, Georgy & Han, Brandon Yueyang, 2020. "Collateral constraints and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 754-776.
    7. Buss, Adrian & Dumas, Bernard & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2016. "The intended and unintended consequences of financial-market regulations: A general-equilibrium analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-43.
    8. Motolese, Maurizio & Nakata, Hiroyuki, 2024. "Are macroeconomic indices fool's gold?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 240-260.
    9. Philippe Mongin & Marcus Pivato, 2020. "Social preference under twofold uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(3), pages 633-663, October.
    10. Brumm, Johannes & Grill, Michael & Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2018. "Re-use of collateral: leverage, volatility, and welfare," Working Paper Series 2218, European Central Bank.
    11. Florian Schuster & Marco Wysietzki & Jonas Zdrzalek, 2023. "How Heterogeneous Beliefs Trigger Financial Crises," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 238, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    12. Gadi Barlevy, 2015. "Bubbles and Fools," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II.
    13. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2019. "Market Selection with Differential Financial Constraints," Working Papers hal-02005501, HAL.
    14. Steven D Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2020. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-60.
    15. Kaname Miyagishima, 2022. "Efficiency, equity, and social rationality under uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(1), pages 237-255, February.
    16. Johan Walden & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, 2015. "Efficiency and Distortions in a Production Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," 2015 Meeting Papers 124, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Takashi Hayashi & Michele Lombardi, 2016. "Social decision under uncertainty and responsibility for beliefs," Working Papers 2016_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    18. Satoshi Nakada & Shmuel Nitzan & Takashi Ui, 2022. "Robust Voting under Uncertainty," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 038, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Kim, Jeong Ho (John) & Kim, Byung-Cheol, 2021. "A welfare criterion with endogenous welfare weights for belief disagreement models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 312-333.
    20. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2023. "Financial Market Equilibrium with Bounded Awareness 1," Working Papers hal-03962427, HAL.
    21. Crès, Hervé & Tvede, Mich, 2018. "Regulation of trades based on differences in beliefs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 133-141.
    22. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Marcus Pivato, 2022. "Bayesian social aggregation with accumulating evidence," Post-Print hal-03637877, HAL.
    24. Maurizio MOTOLESE & NAKATA Hiroyuki, 2016. "Endogenous Fluctuations and Social Welfare under Credit Constraints and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Discussion papers 16082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

  3. Timothy Cogley & Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning," Working Paper 14-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    3. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Pablo Garcia, 2021. "Learning, expectations and monetary policy," BCL working papers 153, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Javier García-Cicco, 2021. "Alternative Monetary-Policy Instruments and Limited Credibility: An Exploration," BCRA Working Paper Series 202191, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    6. Javier García-Cicco, 2019. "Alternative Monetary-Policy Instruments and Limited Credibility in Small and Open Economies: An Exploration," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4145, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    7. Kobielarz, Michal, 2018. "The economics of monetary unions," Other publications TiSEM b0293536-68ec-4905-bffd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2013. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," DEM Working Papers Series 053, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Marcus Giamattei, 2022. "Can Cold Turkey Reduce Inflation Inertia? Evidence on Disinflation and Level‐k Thinking from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2477-2517, December.
    10. Hollmayr, Josef & Kühl, Michael, 2019. "Learning about banks’ net worth and the slow recovery after the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Winkler, Fabian, 2022. "Learning and misperception of makeup strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Justin Svec & Daniel L. Tortorice, 2022. "Asserting Independence: Optimal Monetary Policy When the Central Bank and Political Authority Disagree," Working Papers 2201, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    13. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    14. Christopher G. Gibbs & Mariano Kulish, 2015. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," Discussion Papers 2015-22, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    15. James B. Bullard, 2022. "Reflections on the Disinflationary Methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Speech 94371, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Tales of Transition Paths: Policy Uncertainty and Random Walks," Working Paper 15-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. Josef Hollmayr & Michael Kuehl, 2016. "Imperfect Information about Financial Frictions and Consequences for the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 179-207, October.

  4. Viktor Tsyrennikov & Thomas Sargent & Timothy Cogley, 2012. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," 2012 Meeting Papers 1079, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2013. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working Papers 2013-23, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Pietro Dindo & Filippo Massari, 2017. "The Wisdom of the Crowd in Dynamic Economies," Working Papers 2017:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2018.
    3. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2020. "Market selection with an endogenous state," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 51-59.
    4. Blume, Lawrence E. & Cogley, Timothy & Easley, David A. & Sargent, Thomas J. & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2015. "A Case for Incomplete Markets," Economics Series 313, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    5. Pietro Dindo, 2015. "Survival in Speculative Markets," LEM Papers Series 2015/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
    7. Jang-Ting Guo & Alan Krause, 2017. "The Credibility of Commitment and Optimal Nonlinear Savings Taxation," Discussion Papers 17/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    9. Acedański, Jan, 2017. "Heterogeneous expectations and the distribution of wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 162-175.
    10. Olena Rarytska & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2018. "Capital Flows, Beliefs, and Capital Controls," 2018 Meeting Papers 371, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2019. "Market Selection with Differential Financial Constraints," Working Papers hal-02005501, HAL.
    12. Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Wealth Distribution, and Asset Markets with Risk of Default," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 156-160, May.
    13. Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2015. "Investment, speculation, and financial regulation," 2015 Meeting Papers 627, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    15. Yili Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2016. "Implications of Heterogeneity in Preferences, Beliefs and Asset Trading Technologies in an Endowment Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 215-239, April.
    16. Beker, Pablo F. & Espino, Emilio, 2013. "Too Good to Be True: Asset Pricing Implications of Pessimism," Economic Research Papers 270428, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

  5. Timothy Cogley & Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone, 2011. "Optimal disinflation under learning," Staff Reports 524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio, 2012. "Transparency, Expectations Anchoring and the Inflation Target," DEM Working Papers Series 022, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Matthes, Christian & Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information," Dynare Working Papers 19, CEPREMAP.
    3. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Yang Lu & Ernesto Pasten & Robert King, 2013. "Policy design with private sector skepticism in the textbook New Keynesian model," 2013 Meeting Papers 241, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2013. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-100.
    7. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    8. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    9. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Alina Barnett & Martin Ellison, 2013. "Learning by Disinflating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 731-746, June.
    11. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2013. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," DEM Working Papers Series 053, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2014. "Dynamics of Monetary-Fiscal Interaction under Learning," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Christian Matthes, 2015. "Figuring Out the Fed—Beliefs about Policymakers and Gains from Transparency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 1-29, February.
    15. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2014. "Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century," Working Paper 14-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Inflationary Sentiments and Monetary Policy Communcation," 2012 Meeting Papers 893, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Christian Matthes & Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy," Working Papers 1705E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

  6. Cogley, Timothy & de Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 414, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Kriwoluzky & Christian A. Stoltenberg, 2016. "Nested Models and Model Uncertainty," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(2), pages 324-353, April.
    2. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Szabolcs Deák & Paul Levine & Afrasiab Mirza & Joseph Pearlman, 2019. "Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction Pools," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1219, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian, 2018. "A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13245, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Viktors Ajevskis, 2024. "One Who Hesitates Is Lost: Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty and Model Misspecification," Working Papers 2024/07, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Financial frictions and robust monetary policy in the models of New Keynesian framework," BCAM Working Papers 1701, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    7. Anderson, Evan W. & Brock, William & Sanstad, Alan H., 2016. "Robust Consumption and Energy Decisions," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 250117, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Jasmin Sin, 2016. "The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy: The Role of Liquidity Frictions," IMF Working Papers 2016/138, International Monetary Fund.
    10. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2015. "On Sturdy Policy Evaluation," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S2), pages 447-473.
    11. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)," Working Papers 1702E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    13. Andrea Ajello & Thomas Laubach & J. David López-Salido & Taisuke Nakata, 2016. "Financial Stability and Optimal Interest-Rate Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Abayomi T. Onanuga & Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Adenike M. Osoba, 2016. "Uncertainty of Output Gap and Monetary Policy-Making in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(5), pages 227-237, OCTOBER.
    15. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    16. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
    18. Federico Ravenna, 2014. "How Central Banks Learn the True Model of the Economy," Cahiers de recherche 1409, CIRPEE.
    19. Almosova, Anna, 2016. "Labor market frictions and monetary policy design," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-054, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    20. Ravenna, Federico, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy and model selection in a real-time learning environment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 322-325.
    21. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2016. "Animal spirits and optimal monetary policy design in the presence of labour market frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 898-912.
    22. Alexander William Salter & Thomas L. Hogan, 2019. "Expectations and NGDP Targeting: Supply-Side Problems with Demand-Side Policy," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 34(Fall 2019), pages 89-106.
    23. Mariusz Górajski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2022. "Which hallmarks of optimal monetary policy rules matter in Poland? A stochastic dominance approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(2), pages 149-182.
    24. Górajski Mariusz & Kuchta Zbigniew, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty of Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in DSGE models," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    25. Matteo Cacciatore & Dmitry Matveev & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2022. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature," Discussion Papers 2022-9, Bank of Canada.
    26. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2018. "How costly is a misspecified credit channel DSGE model in monetary policymaking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 484-505.
    27. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2023. "Price-setting heterogeneity and robust monetary policy in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

  7. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2016. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, Nairu and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 551-565, April.
    2. Lin, Tsu-ting Tim, 2015. "Working capital requirement and the unemployment volatility puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 201-217.
    3. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    5. Sacht, Stephen & Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok, 2013. "Moment Matching versus Bayesian Estimation: Backward-Looking Behaviour in a New-Keynesian Baseline Model," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79694, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    285. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q I), pages 17-50.

  8. Thomas J. Sargent & Riccardo Colacito & Lars P. Hansen & Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Robustness and US Monetary," 2008 Meeting Papers 228, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ted Temzelides & Borghan Narajabad, 2014. "Robust Dynamic Optimal Taxation and Environmental Externalities," 2014 Meeting Papers 59, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Dennis, Richard & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2014. "Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-64, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Jianjun Miao & Alejandro Rivera, 2016. "Robust Contracts in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1405-1440, July.
    4. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Malley, James, 2010. "Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-79, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Chen, Jun-Home & Huang, Yu-Lieh & Chang, Jow-Ran, 2017. "Robust Good-Deal Bounds In Incomplete Markets: The Case Of Taiwan," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 58(1), pages 53-67, June.
    6. Li Qin & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2009. "Robust Monetary Policy under Model Uncertainty and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers of BETA 2009-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.
    8. Schumacher Johannes M., 2018. "Distortion risk measures, ROC curves, and distortion divergence," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 35(1-2), pages 35-50, January.
    9. James Costain & Anton Nakov, 2013. "Logit price dynamics," Working Papers 1301, Banco de España.
    10. Richard Dennis, 2013. "Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive," Working Papers 2013_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Kwon, Hyosung & Miao, Jianjun, 2017. "Three types of robust Ramsey problems in a linear-quadratic framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 211-231.
    12. Bunten, Devin & Kahn, Matthew E., 2017. "Optimal real estate capital durability and localized climate change disaster risk," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
    13. Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Robust delegation with uncertain monetary policy preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 73-78.
    14. Tarik Driouchi & Lenos Trigeorgis & Raymond H. Y. So, 2018. "Option implied ambiguity and its information content: Evidence from the subprime crisis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 463-491, March.
    15. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Tim Willems, 2012. "Optimal Learning on Climate Change: Why Climate Skeptics should reduce Emissions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-085/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Paolo Vitale, 2017. "Ambiguity-aversion in a Single Auction Market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1745-1752.
    17. Richard Dennis, 2013. "Imperfect Credibility and Robust Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2013_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    18. Kenneth Kasa & Xiaowen Lei, 2017. "Risk, Uncertainty, and the Dynamics of Inequality," Discussion Papers dp17-06, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    19. Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Communicating Trade-offs amid Controversial Science: Decision Support for Climate Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 74-90.
    20. Asano, Takao & Shibata, Akihisa, 2011. "Optimal pricing and quality choice of a monopolist under Knightian uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 746-754.
    21. Tillmann Peter, 2009. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Conservatism? Robustness and the Delegation of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, June.
    22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2011. "Robustness and ambiguity in continuous time," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1195-1223, May.
    23. Zhao, Guihai, 2017. "Confidence, bond risks, and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 668-688.
    24. Djeutem, Edouard, 2014. "Model uncertainty and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 16-40.
    25. Rhys M. Bidder & Raffaella Giacomini & Andrew McKenna, 2016. "Stress Testing with Misspecified Models," Working Paper Series 2016-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  9. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Hornstein, 2007. "Notes on the inflation dynamics of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper 07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Yao, Fang, 2009. "Non-constant hazard function and inflation dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-030, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank, 2009. "Imperfect information and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 38-56.
    5. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hubrich, Kirstin & González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," Working Paper Series 1363, European Central Bank.
    7. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2011. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 252, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    8. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2010. "La persistencia estadística de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7573, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    11. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
    12. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    13. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
    14. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.
    15. Russell, Bill, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
    16. Borek Vasicek, 2009. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp971, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Adolfo Sachsida & Marcio Ribeiro & Claudio Hamilton dos Santos, 2009. "A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1430, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    20. Laura Inés D’Amato & María Lorena Garegnani, 2013. "How Persistent is Inflation in Argentina?: Inflation Regimes and Price Dynamics in the Last 50 Years," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Inflationary Dynamics, Persistence, and Prices and Wages Formation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 81-104, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    21. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2012. "Inflação Versus Desemprego: Novas Evidências Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1763, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    22. Laura Inés D’Amato & María Lorena Garegnani, 2013. "¿Cuán persistente es la inflación en Argentina?: regímenes inflacionarios y dinámica de precios en los últimos 50 años," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Dinámica inflacionaria, persistencia y formación de precios y salarios, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 91-115, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    23. Yao, Fang, 2009. "Time-dependent pricing and New Keynesian Phillips curve," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    24. Steffen Henzel, 2008. "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    25. Andrea Vaona, 2008. "Inflation persistence, structural breaks and omitted variables: a critical view," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 0802, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    26. Andreas Hornstein, 2007. "Evolving inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Fall), pages 317-339.

  10. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent & Riccardo Colacito, 2005. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson," 2005 Meeting Papers 791, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Peter Hooper & Bruce C. Kasman & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Understanding the Evolving the Evolving Inflation Process," Working Papers 2007-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Alain Kabundi & Eric Schaling & Modeste Some, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations in South Africa," Working Papers 6107, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Commentary on \\"Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 295-300.
    5. Kenneth Kasa, 2007. "Learning and Model Validation," 2007 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006.
    7. Alain Kabundi & Eric Schaling, 2013. "Inflation and Inflation Expectations in South Africa: an Attempt at Explanation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 346-355, September.

  11. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle, and Indeterminacy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1557-1584, December.
    2. Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2005. "Pricing models: a Bayesian DSGE approach to the U.S. economy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Andreas Hornstein, 2007. "Notes on the inflation dynamics of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper 07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2008. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 247-289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kevin D. Sheedy, 2007. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0837, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2010. "International evidence on the efficacy of new‐Keynesian models of inflation persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 31-54, January.
    7. Levin, Andrew & Yun, Tack, 2007. "Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis in a New Keynesian framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1344-1365, July.
    8. Gbaguidi DAVID, 2011. "Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 141-181.
    9. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Interpreting Inflation Persistence: Comments on the Conference on "Quantitative Evidence on Price Determination"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 203-210, February.
    10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Ekaterina Ponomareva, 2012. "About the sources of the inflation persistence in Russia," Working Papers 0016, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2012.
    12. Krisztina Molnár & Sergio Santoro, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Agents are Learning," CESifo Working Paper Series 3072, CESifo.
    13. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jean‐Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Pricing Models: A Bayesian DSGE Approach for the U.S. Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 127-154, February.
    15. Jan Capek, 2014. "Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: Do Real-Time Data Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 457-475, December.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    17. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 14260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Coenen, Günter, 2003. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Working Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
    20. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2010. "Can We Explain Inflation Persistence in a Way that Is Consistent with the Microevidence on Nominal Rigidity?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 151-170, February.
    21. Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August.
    22. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    23. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2006. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," NBER Working Papers 11971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Benati, Luca, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 851, European Central Bank.
    26. Levin, Andrew T. & Coenen, Günter, 2004. "Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior," Working Paper Series 418, European Central Bank.
    27. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2005. "Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence," Working Papers 05-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    28. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation," Economics Working Papers 1039, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2007.
    30. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2011. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 252, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    31. Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    32. Ahrens, Steffen & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "State-dependence vs. timedependence: An empirical multi-country investigation of price sluggishness," Kiel Working Papers 1907, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    33. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 410, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Feng Zhu, 2005. "The fragility of the Phillips curve: A bumpy ride in the frequency domain," BIS Working Papers 183, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 12402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Paolo Surico, 2005. "Monetary Policy Shifts, Indeterminacy and Inflation Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0504014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Engin Kara, 2012. "Using Micro Data on Prices to Improve Business Cycle Models," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/632, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    38. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States," Working Papers 2006/11, Czech National Bank.
    40. Lendvai, Julia, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank.
    41. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2013. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," DEM Working Papers Series 053, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    42. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2006. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a vertical production chain approach," Working Papers 06-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    43. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2006. "U.S. Inflation Dynamics: What Drives Them Over Different Frequencies?," IMF Working Papers 2006/159, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Charlotta Groth & Jarkko Jääskelä & Paolo Surico, 2006. "Fundamental inflation uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 309, Bank of England.
    45. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and Unemployment Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 637-673, June.
    46. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, February.
    47. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    48. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    49. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2010. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve of Rational Expectations: A Serial Correlation Extension," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 159-179, May.
    50. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    51. Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago, 2014. "Lack of divine coincidence in New Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 33-46.
    52. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
    53. Vaona, Andrea, 2006. "Merging the purchasing power parity and the Phillips curve literatures: Regional evidence from Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1282, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    54. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2003. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Research Working Paper RWP 03-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    55. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.
    56. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    57. Ahrens, Steffen & Sacht, Stephen, 2011. "Estimating a high-frequency New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Kiel Working Papers 1686, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    58. Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?," Staff Reports 204, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    59. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. wage and price dynamics: a limited information approach," Staff Reports 256, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    60. Russell, Bill, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
    61. Harashima, Taiji, 2013. "The Phillips Curve and a Micro-foundation of Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 51305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle," Working Papers Series 277, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    63. Borek Vasicek, 2009. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp971, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    64. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    66. James Murray, 2008. "Empirical Significance of Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Firm-Specific Capital," CAEPR Working Papers 2007-027, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    67. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2006. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in a medium-scale macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 612, European Central Bank.
    68. Paolo Surico, 2007. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 3, pages 42-66, Palgrave Macmillan.
    69. Flamini, Alessandro & Milas, Costas, 2015. "Distribution forecast targeting in an open-economy, macroeconomic volatility and financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 89-105.
    70. Flamini Alessandro, 2012. "Economic Stability and the Choice of the Target Inflation Index," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-37, April.
    71. James Murray, 2008. "Initial Expectations in New Keynesian Models with Learning," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-017, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    72. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-58, December.
    73. Gregory de Walque & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2006. "Price Shocks in General Equilibrium: Alternative Specifications," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(1), pages 153-176, March.
    74. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 547-579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    75. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    77. Paloviita, Maritta, 2008. "Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2008_040, July.
    78. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.
    79. Alessandro Flamini & Costas Milas, 2014. "Open-economy Distribution Forecast Targeting, Macroeconomic Volatility and Financial Implication," DEM Working Papers Series 080, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    80. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    81. Andreas Hornstein & Alexander L. Wolman, 2005. "Trend inflation, firm-specific capital, and sticky prices," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 91(Fall), pages 57-83.
    82. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Optimal Policy When the Inflation Target is not Optimal," Working Papers Series 271, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    83. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
    84. Andreas Hornstein, 2007. "Evolving inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Fall), pages 317-339.

  12. Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    Cited by:

    1. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168111, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Davide Pettenuzzo & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2016. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG," Working Papers 99R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Aug 2016.
    3. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
    4. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    5. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
    8. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    9. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    10. Miguel A.G. Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time‐Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 80-94, January.
    11. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART," Borradores de Economia 2815, Banco de la Republica.
    13. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
    14. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    15. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 11_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    17. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp222, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    18. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2018. "Spillovers from US monetary policy: Evidence from a time-varying parameter GVAR model," Working Papers in Economics 2018-6, University of Salzburg.
    19. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
    20. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
    21. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    22. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    23. Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Asset Prices, News Shocks, and the Trade Balance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1211-1251, October.
    24. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 24_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    25. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
    26. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
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    38. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Le Ha Thu & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez, 2021. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Economies: An Application to Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 21-03, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    40. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2010. "Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 8080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    42. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," Staff Working Papers 13-15, Bank of Canada.
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    45. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
    46. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    47. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    48. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
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    53. Luca Benati, 2008. "The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
    54. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    55. Miguel, Belmonte & Gary, Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-34, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    56. Luca Benati, 2004. "Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance," Bank of England working papers 232, Bank of England.
    57. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal, 2018. "Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 367-378.
    58. Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint prediction bands for macroeconomic risk management," Working Paper 2016/7, Norges Bank.
    59. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
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    61. Rodríguez, Aldo, 2020. "Estimación Bayesiana de un Modelo de Economía Abierta con Sector Bancario," Dynare Working Papers 52, CEPREMAP.
    62. Andrew McKenna & Rhys Bidder, 2014. "Robust Stress Testing," 2014 Meeting Papers 853, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    63. Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2015. "Forecasting excess stock returns with crude oil market data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 316-324.
    64. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    65. Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making," Working Papers 68, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    66. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korompilis, 2009. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," Working Papers 0917, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    67. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    68. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Qing & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Forecasting U.S. real GDP using oil prices: A time-varying parameter MIDAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-187.
    69. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    70. Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
    71. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices – You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," Working Papers 2020:13, Örebro University, School of Business.
    72. Schlösser, Alexander, 2020. "Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 838, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    73. Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Stocker,Marc & Some,Modeste Y., 2016. "Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7770, The World Bank.
    74. Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni & Valeria Patella, 2024. "Belief distortions and Disagreement about Inflation," Working Paper series 24-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    75. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Paper 2012/09, Norges Bank.
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    77. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
    78. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2016. "A MIDAS approach to modeling first and second moment dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 315-334.
    79. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving UK macroeconomic dynamics: a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 386, Bank of England.
    80. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    81. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
    82. Dong Jin Lee, 2009. "Testing Parameter Stability in Quantile Models: An Application to the U.S. Inflation Process," Working papers 2009-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    83. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    84. Anthony Garratt & Timo Henckel & Shaun P. Vahey, 2019. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," CAMA Working Papers 2019-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168111, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2021. "Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?," MPRA Paper 108677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Huang, Yingying & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and green financial assets: A comparison between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2015. "Inference on Multivariate Heteroscedastic Time Varying Random Coefficient Models," Working Papers 767, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    6. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    7. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kostas Mavromatis, 2020. "Finite Horizons and the Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 327-378, September.
    9. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Giraitis, Liudas, 2020. "Time-Varying Instrumental Variable Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2019. "Regime-Dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A Structural Interpretation," Working papers 714, Banque de France.
    11. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 239-261, February.
    12. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    13. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2011. "Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model," Working Papers 1121, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    14. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Huber, Florian, 2016. "Density forecasting using Bayesian global vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 818-837.
    16. Gagan Deep Sharma & Mandeep Mahendru & Mrinalini Srivastava, 2019. "Can Central Banking Policies Make a Difference in Financial Market Performance in Emerging Economies? The Case of India," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    19. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    20. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    21. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
    22. Zhang, Guofu & Du, Ziping, 2017. "Co-movements among the stock prices of new energy, high-technology and fossil fuel companies in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 249-256.
    23. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    24. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    25. Angela Abbate & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Macroeconomic activity and risk indicators: an unstable relationship," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1756, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    26. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    27. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    28. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies- evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Bruegel Working Papers 722, Bruegel.
    29. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
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    24. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Veldkamp, Laura, 2006. "Learning asymmetries in real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 753-772, May.
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    27. Toda, Alexis Akira & Walsh, Kieran James, 2016. "Fat Tails and Spurious Estimation of Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models," MPRA Paper 78980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    33. Narayana Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2008. "Household Heterogeneity and Asset Trade: Resolving the Equity Premium Puzzle in Three Countries," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001886, UCLA Department of Economics.
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    37. Andrei Semenov, 2017. "Background risk in consumption and the equity risk premium," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 407-439, February.
    38. Andrei Semenov, 2008. "Estimation of the consumption CAPM with imperfect sample separation information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 333-348.
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    41. H. Youn Kim, 2003. "Intertemporal production and asset pricing: a duality approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 344-379, April.
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    1. Pacheco Jiménez, J.F., 2001. "Business cycles in small open economies: the case of Costa Rica," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Working Papers 1109, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2011.
    3. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 125-139, March.
    4. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Roberto Iannaccone & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Signal Extraction in Continuous Time and the Generalized Hodrick- Prescott Filter," Econometrics 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    7. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    8. Jun Ma & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "An Unobserved Components Model that Yields Business and Medium‐Run Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1351-1373, October.
    9. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
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  17. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "A frequency decomposition of approximation errors in stochastic discount factor models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Tan, Fei, 2018. "A Frequency-Domain Approach to Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," MPRA Paper 90487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bandi, Federico M. & Chaudhuri, Shomesh E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2021. "Spectral factor models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 214-238.
    3. Jozef Baruník & Evžen Kocenda, 2019. "Total, Asymmetric and Frequency Connectedness Between Oil and Forex Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 7756, CESifo.
    4. Chang-Chih Chen & Chia-Chien Chang, 2019. "How Big are the Ambiguity-Based Premiums on Mortgage Insurances?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 133-157, January.
    5. Bandi, Federico M. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Business-cycle consumption risk and asset prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    6. Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Yahya & Ali Ahmed & Donghyun Park & Shu Tian, 2024. "In search of light in the darkness: What can we learn from ethical, sustainable and green investments?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1451-1495, April.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
    8. Luca Sala, 2013. "DSGE models in the frequency domain," Working Papers 504, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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  21. Cogley, T., 1989. "International Evidence On The Size Of The Random Walk In Output," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 89-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

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    1. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Petrova, Katerina, 2016. "A time varying DSGE model with financial frictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 690-716.
    2. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    5. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    6. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2016. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large-scale mixture innovation models," Papers 1607.04532, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    8. Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2016. "The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 283-297.
    9. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    10. S. Boragan Aruoba & Luigi Bocola & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Working Papers 13-47, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2012. "Reset Price Inflation and the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2798-2825, October.
    12. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE.
    13. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    14. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
    15. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    17. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Petrova, Katerina, 2019. "A quasi-Bayesian local likelihood approach to time varying parameter VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 286-306.
    19. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
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    22. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2009.
    23. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    26. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, inflation persistence, and long memory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-127.
    27. Mohanty, Deepak & John, Joice, 2015. "Determinants of inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-96.
    28. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz & Roman Sustek, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Discussion Papers 2024, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    29. Hummaira Jabeen, 2022. "Monetary Policy Shock Transmission in Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 379-390, December.
    30. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    31. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1849-1867, September.
    32. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
    33. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
    34. Glocker, Christian & Sestieri, Giulia & Towbin, Pascal, 2019. "Time-varying government spending multipliers in the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 180-197.
    35. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Wohar, Mark E., 2023. "Are real interest rates a monetary phenomenon? Evidence from 700 years of data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    36. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    37. Cubadda, Gianluca & Grassi, Stefano & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2025. "The time-varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 175-190.
    38. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2004. "Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility: Facts," NBER Working Papers 10922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    40. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan, 2020. "Flexible Fat-tailed Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 2020:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    41. Kapetanios, George & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Petrova, Katerina & Waldron, Matthew, 2019. "A time-varying parameter structural model of the UK economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    42. Barnett, Alina & Groen, Jan J J & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Time-varying inflation expectations and economic fluctuations in the United Kingdom: a structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 392, Bank of England.
    43. Mehdi Hajamini, 2019. "Asymmetric Causality Between Inflation and Uncertainty: Evidences from 33 Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 287-309, June.
    44. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 978-992, September.
    45. Backé, Peter & Smets, Frank & Coenen, Günter, 2003. "Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy," Working Paper Series 250, European Central Bank.
    46. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2020. "Inflation in the G7 Countries: Persistence and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 8349, CESifo.
    47. Harashima, Taiji, 2007. "Hyperinflation, disinflation, deflation, etc.: A unified and micro-founded explanation for inflation," MPRA Paper 3836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2023. "Oil shocks and investor attention," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-81.
    49. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    50. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    51. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Evolving UK macroeconomic dynamics: a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 386, Bank of England.
    52. Paolo Surico, 2007. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 3, pages 42-66, Palgrave Macmillan.
    53. Michael D. Bordo & Athanasios Orphanides, 2013. "Introduction to "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking"," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 1-22, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Bank loan components, uncertainty and monetary transmission mechanism," BCAM Working Papers 1702, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    55. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    56. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2018. "Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, April.
    57. Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    58. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    59. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    60. Bel, Koen & Paap, Richard, 2016. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on US inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1306-1316.
    61. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    62. William T. Gavin, 2018. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(2), pages 151-169.
    63. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2006. "Time-varying parameter models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 21-26, April.

  23. Timothy Cogley, "undated". "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles R. Nelson & Jinho Bae, 2004. "Earnings Growth and the Bull Market of the 1990s: Is There a Case for Rational Exuberance?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 452, Econometric Society.
    2. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    4. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    5. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 81869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Working Paper Series 802, European Central Bank.
    9. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    10. Tunc, Ahmet & Kocoglu, Mustafa & Aslan, Alper, 2022. "Time-varying characteristics of the simultaneous interactions between economic uncertainty, international oil prices and GDP: A novel approach for Germany," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    12. Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2017. "К Вопросу О Долгосрочной Взаимосвязи Реального Потребления Домохозяйств С Реальным Доходом В Рф [A note on cointegration relationship between real consumption and real income in Russia]," MPRA Paper 82451, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2017.
    13. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2011. "Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2011-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    14. Geraci, Marco Valerio & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1371-1390, June.
    15. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    16. Nikita D. Fokin & Ekaterina V. Malikova & Andrey V. Polbin, 2024. "Time-varying parameters error correction model for real ruble exchange rate and oil prices: What has changed due to capital control and sanctions?," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(1), pages 20-33, March.
    17. Attfield, Clifford & Temple, Jonathan, 2004. "Measuring Trend Output: How Useful Are the Great Ratios?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4796, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Luigi Bocola & Nils M. Gornemann, 2013. "Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations," Working Papers 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Trinh Thi Mai & Moade Shubita, 2021. "Development of Vietnamese stock market: Influence of domestic macroeconomic environment and regional markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1435-1458, January.
    20. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    21. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    22. Rachael McCririck & Daniel Rees, 2016. "The Slowdown in US Productivity Growth: Breaks and Beliefs," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. Benati, Luca & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics: a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 746, European Central Bank.
    24. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    26. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    27. Guse, Eran A., 2014. "Adaptive learning, endogenous uncertainty, and asymmetric dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 355-373.
    28. C. Glocker & G. Sestieri & P. Towbin, 2017. "Time-varying fiscal spending multipliers in the UK," Working papers 643, Banque de France.
    29. William Gatt, 2016. "Time variation, asymmetry and threshold effect in Malta's Phillips curve," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    30. Jyoti Rahman & David Stephan & Gene Tunny, 2009. "Estimating trends in Australia's productivity," Treasury Working Papers 2009-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Feb 2009.
    31. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    32. Denis Belomestny & Ekaterina Krymova & Andrey Polbin, 2020. "Estimating TVP-VAR models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Papers 2008.00718, arXiv.org.
    33. Owen Grech & Noel Rapa, 2016. "STREAM: A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    34. Marco Valerio Geraci & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2015. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying VARS," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-51, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    35. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

Articles

  1. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Gerlach & Rebecca Stuart, 2021. "International Co-movements of Inflation, 1851-1913," IRENE Working Papers 21-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
    3. Pooyan Amir‐Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu‐Chun Wang, 2016. "Drifts and volatilities under measurement error: Assessing monetary policy shocks over the last century," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 591-611, July.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 847, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Trani, Tommaso, 2019. "The cyclical structure of the UK inflation rate: 1210–2016," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 182-185.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectorial Inflation in the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 9, pages 317-344, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "UK inflation forecasts since the thirteenth century," CAMA Working Papers 2021-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "Are Monetary Policy Disturbances Important in Ghana? Some Evidence from Agnostic Identification," MPRA Paper 70205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hakan Berument & Ezequiel Cabezon & Richard Froyen, 2017. "A century and three-quarters of Bank Rate and long-term interest rates in the United Kingdom," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 26-47, March.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2019-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..

  3. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 1-30, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2012. "Market Prices of Risk with Diverse Beliefs, Learning, and Catastrophes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 141-146, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2013. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working Papers 2013-23, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Anton Nakov & Galo Nuño, 2011. "Learning from experience in the stock market," Working Papers 1132, Banco de España.
    3. Athreya, Kartik B., 2014. "Big Ideas in Macroeconomics: A Nontechnical View," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262019736, December.

  5. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Cogley Timothy & Yagihashi Takeshi, 2010. "Are DSGE Approximating Models Invariant to Shifts in Policy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-33, October.

    Cited by:

    1. F. Canova & F. Ferroni & C. Matthes, 2015. "Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures," Working papers 578, Banque de France.
    2. Barrios Cobos, Salvador & Dolls, Mathias & Maftei, Anamaria & Peichl, Andreas & Riscado, Sara & Varga, Janos & Wittneben, Christian, 2017. "Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in the European Union," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-017, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Samuel Hurtado, 2013. "DSGE Models and the Lucas critique," Working Papers 1310, Banco de España.
    4. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    5. Francesco Sergi, 2018. "DSGE Models and the Lucas Critique. A Historical Appraisal," Working Papers 20181806, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    6. Heinrichs, Katrin & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "Positive trend inflation and the Phillips curve – A tale of two slopes and various impulse responses," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 283-307.
    7. Hashem M. Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2011. "Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket," CESifo Working Paper Series 3447, CESifo.
    8. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Frank Schorfheide, 2010. "Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique," NBER Working Papers 16401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    10. Dolls, Mathias & Wittneben, Christian, 2017. "Dynamic Scoring of Tax Reforms in the EU," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168261, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. SENBATA, Sisay Regassa, 2011. "How applicable are the new Keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," Working Papers 2011016, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    12. Fernando J. Pérez Forero, 2017. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Time-Varying," Working Papers 102, Peruvian Economic Association.
    13. Takeshi Yagihashi, 2020. "DSGE Models Used by Policymakers: A Survey," Discussion papers ron333, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    14. Saijo, Hikaru, 2013. "Estimating DSGE models using seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 22-35.
    15. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2018. "How costly is a misspecified credit channel DSGE model in monetary policymaking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 484-505.

  7. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Cogley, Timothy, 2009. "Is the market price of risk infinite?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 13-16, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Bakshi, Gurdip & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2010. "Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 462-477, December.
    2. Timothy Cogley & Boyan Jovanovic, 2020. "Structural Breaks in an Endogenous Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 28026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David & Perote, Javier, 2012. "On the stability of the constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility under high degrees of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 244-248.

  9. Timothy Cogley & ThomasJ. Sargent, 2009. "Diverse Beliefs, Survival and the Market Price of Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(536), pages 354-376, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Roland RATHELOT, 2011. "Measuring Segregation when Units are Small : A Parametric Approach," Working Papers 2011-06, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Roger Farmer, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity and Wealth Inequality," Papers 2012.09445, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    3. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.
    4. Philip Kostov & Sophia Davidova, 2023. "Smallholders Are Not the Same: Under the Hood of Kosovo Agriculture," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Pataracchia, B., 2013. "Ambiguity aversion and heterogeneity in financial markets : An empirical and theoretical perspective," Other publications TiSEM bc849a3c-87a4-4718-b049-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Easley, David & Yang, Liyan, 2015. "Loss aversion, survival and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 494-516.
    7. Pietro Dindo, 2015. "Survival in Speculative Markets," LEM Papers Series 2015/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Tomasz Strzalecki & Jan Werner, "undated". "Efficient Allocations under Ambiguity," Working Paper 8325, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    9. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 8-33, August.
    10. Alan Guoming Huang & Eric Hughson & J. Chris Leach, 2016. "Generational Asset Pricing, Equity Puzzles, and Cyclicality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 52-71, October.
    11. Pablo F Beker & Emilio Espino, 2007. "The Dynamics of Efficient Asset Trading with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001715, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Vladimir Dombrovskii & Tatyana Obyedko, 2014. "Dynamic Investment Portfolio Optimization under Constraints in the Financial Market with Regime Switching using Model Predictive Control," Papers 1410.1136, arXiv.org.
    13. Roger Farmer & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality," NBER Working Papers 28261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kostov, Philip & Davidova, Sophia, 2017. "One size does not fit all: an empirical investigation of the Romanian agriculture production function," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258642, Agricultural Economics Society.

  10. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luigi Paciello, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Doubts and Asset Prices," EIEF Working Papers Series 1024, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Sep 2010.
    2. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, "undated". "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-014, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2016. "Gresham’S Law Of Model Averaging," Discussion Papers dp16-06, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    4. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    5. Luci Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon M. Potter, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Staff Reports 680, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Ted Temzelides & Borghan Narajabad, 2014. "Robust Dynamic Optimal Taxation and Environmental Externalities," 2014 Meeting Papers 59, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Zhang, Yaoyu & Wu, Chenye & Gu, Nan & Yu, Yang, 2022. "The robustness of low-carbon policies during China’s electricity reform," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Malley, James, 2010. "Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-79, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    9. Windsor, Callan & La Cava, Gianni & Hansen, James, 2015. "Home price beliefs: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-58.
    10. Li Qin & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2009. "Robust Monetary Policy under Model Uncertainty and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers of BETA 2009-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," Working Papers wp2013_1305, CEMFI.
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    77. Missaka Warusawitharana, 2015. "Research and development, profits, and firm value: A structural estimation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(2), pages 531-565, July.
    78. Klaus Gründler & Armin Hackenberger & Anina Harter & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "Covid-19 Vaccination: The Role of Crisis Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 9096, CESifo.
    79. Jess Benhabib & Chetan Dave, 2011. "Learning, Large Deviations and Rare Events," NBER Working Papers 16816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    80. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "A Reconsideration of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 931-973, August.
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    93. Frahm, Gabriel, 2010. "An analytical investigation of estimators for expected asset returns from the perspective of optimal asset allocation," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 1/10, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
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  13. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Anticipated Utility And Rational Expectations As Approximations Of Bayesian Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 185-221, February.

    Cited by:

    1. William A. Branch & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Finite Horizon Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-15, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    2. Cars Hommes & Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2017. "Internal rationalityuyuyuy, heterogeneity and complexity in the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 20171706, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Laura Coroneo & Sergio Pastorello, 2017. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Discussion Papers 17/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    5. Volker Wieland & Christos Koulovatianos, 2011. "Asset Pricing under Rational Learning about Rare Disasters," 2011 Meeting Papers 1417, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Nabil Al-Najjar & Jonathan Weinstein, 2015. "A Bayesian model of Knightian uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Kaushik, Mitra, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence hold when expectations are not rational?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2010, Bank of Finland.
    9. Emine Boz & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    11. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arunima Sinha, 2016. "Learning and the Yield Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 513-547, March.
    13. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
    14. Sergio Santoro, 2017. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 183-211, June.
    15. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    16. Nahid Masoudi & Marc Santugini & Georges Zaccour, 2015. "A Dynamic Game of Emissions Pollution with Uncertainty and Learning," Cahiers de recherche 1501, CIRPEE.
    17. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis," Discussion Papers 12/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The consequences of an unknown debt target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 76-96.
    19. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Fan Yang, 2010. "On the Relative Pricing of long Maturity S&P 500 Index Options and CDX Tranches," NBER Working Papers 15734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    21. Özge Dilaver & Robert Jump & Paul Levine, 2016. "Agent-based Macroeconomics and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Where do we go from here?," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0116, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    22. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
    23. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: a Survey," Working Papers 121301, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    24. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Exchange rate regime and household's choice of debt," MPRA Paper 54219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Bruce Preston, 2013. "Comment on "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 47-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    27. Ricardo M. Masolo & Francesca Monti, 2017. "Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation," Discussion Papers 1709, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    28. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," Working Papers 15-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    29. Ivan Rudik & Derek Lemoine & Maxwell Rosenthal, 2018. "General Bayesian Learning in Dynamic Stochastic Models: Estimating the Value of Science Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Edward Herbst & David Lopez-Salido & Christopher Gust, 2017. "Forward Guidance with Bayesian Learning and Estimation," 2017 Meeting Papers 1189, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Kenneth Kasa, 2007. "Learning and Model Validation," 2007 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    32. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2018. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: an evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," BIS Working Papers 713, Bank for International Settlements.
    33. Seppo Honkapohja & Arja H. Turunen-Red & Alan D. Woodland, 2011. "Growth, Expectations, and Tariffs," CESifo Working Paper Series 3435, CESifo.
    34. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    35. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2018n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    36. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2013. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," DEM Working Papers Series 053, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    37. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
    38. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Barnes, Michelle L. & Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià & Lie, Denny & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2011. "Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2011-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    40. Bodo Herzog, 2019. "Dynamic Expectation Theory: Insights for Market Participants," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, May.
    41. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    42. John J. Conlon & Laura Pilossoph & Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2018. "Labor Market Search With Imperfect Information and Learning," Working Papers 2018-068, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    43. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2018. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 22/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    44. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    45. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
    46. Martin Eichenbaum, 2023. "On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1221-1237, November.
    47. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
    48. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    49. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Winkler, Fabian, 2022. "Learning and misperception of makeup strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    50. Calvert Jump, Robert & Hommes, Cars & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Learning, heterogeneity, and complexity in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 446-470.
    51. Martin Bodenstein & James Hebden & Fabian Winkler, 2019. "Learning and Misperception: Implications for Price-Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    52. Christos Koulovatianos, 2015. "Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource Under Rational Learning About its Reproduction," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 94-119, March.
    53. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    54. Bullard, J.B. & Suda, J., 2011. "The Stability of Macroeconomic Systems with Bayesian Learners," Working papers 332, Banque de France.
    55. Beckert Jens, 2018. "Woher kommen Erwartungen?: Die soziale Strukturierung imaginierter Zukünfte," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 59(2), pages 507-523, May.
    56. Jessica A. Wachter & Yicheng Zhu, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Announcement Premium," NBER Working Papers 24432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2014. "Collateralisation bubbles when investors disagree about risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F., 2014. "Risk aversion, investor information and stock market volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 88-107.
    59. Hacıoğlu, Volkan, 2015. "Bayesian Expectations and Strategic Complementarity: Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," MPRA Paper 75397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Sinha, Arunima, 2015. "Government debt, learning and the term structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 268-289.
    61. Timothy Cogley & Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone, 2011. "Optimal disinflation under learning," Staff Reports 524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    62. Daniel Gregg & John Rolfe, 2018. "Myopia and saliency in renewable resource management," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(3), pages 394-419, July.
    63. Gerba, Eddie & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 2068, European Central Bank.
    64. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    65. Christopher J. Gust & J. David López-Salido, 2024. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Private Sector Foresight," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    66. Luzzetti, Matthew N. & Neumuller, Seth, 2016. "Learning and the dynamics of consumer unsecured debt and bankruptcies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 22-39.
    67. Assenza, T. & Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2012. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Amplification and Duration of Crises," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    68. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    69. Branch, William & McGough, Bruce, 2016. "Heterogeneous beliefs and trading inefficiencies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 786-818.
    70. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    71. Jonas E. Arias & Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2014. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation - Comment," International Finance Discussion Papers 1127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    72. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2021. "Learning when to say no," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    73. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2011. "Optimal Criminal Behavior and the Disutility of Jail: Theory and Evidence On Bank Robberies," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 220, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    74. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Pathwise concentration bounds for Bayesian beliefs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.
    75. Yang Lu & Michael Siemer, 2013. "Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    76. Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2013. "E-stability in the stochastic Ramsey model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 407-410.

  14. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Peter Hooper & Bruce C. Kasman & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Understanding the Evolving the Evolving Inflation Process," Working Papers 2007-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 1, pages 001-025, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Alain Kabundi & Eric Schaling & Modeste Some, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations in South Africa," Working Papers 6107, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric, 2014. "Model Uncertainty and Intertemporal Tax Smoothing," MPRA Paper 54268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Learning, Endogenous Indexation and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Ellison, Martin & Macaulay, Alistair, 2019. "A Rational Inattention Unemployment Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling, 2008. "Managing Disinflation under Uncertainty," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0812, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    9. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.
    10. Yates, Anthony & Ellison, Martin, 2007. "Escaping Nash and Volatile Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Commentary on \\"Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 295-300.
    13. Bigio, Saki, 2009. "Learning under Fear of Floating," Working Papers 2009-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    14. Lars E. O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 275-294.
    15. Kenneth Kasa, 2007. "Learning and Model Validation," 2007 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Alina Barnett & Martin Ellison, 2013. "Learning by Disinflating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 731-746, June.
    17. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006.
    18. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)," Working Papers 1702E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    20. Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," 2007 Meeting Papers 446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts, 2010. "Why Speed Doesn’t Kill: Learning to Believe in Disinflation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 23-42, April.
    22. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
    23. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    24. Zhu, Hongwei & Siegel, Michael & Madnick, Stuart, 2008. "Enabling Global Price Comparison through Semantic Integration of Web Data," Working papers 40084, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    25. Williams, Noah, 2012. "Monetary policy under financial uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 449-465.
    26. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Pathwise concentration bounds for Bayesian beliefs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.
    27. Matteo Cacciatore & Dmitry Matveev & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2022. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature," Discussion Papers 2022-9, Bank of Canada.
    28. Lee, Sang Seok & Luk, Paul, 2018. "The Asian Financial Crisis and international reserve accumulation: A robust control approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 284-309.
    29. Alain Kabundi & Eric Schaling, 2013. "Inflation and Inflation Expectations in South Africa: an Attempt at Explanation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 346-355, September.

  15. Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Min Fan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, the Term Structure and Time-varying Risk Premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 259-285, July.
    2. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    3. Mikhail Chernov & Ruslan Bikbov, 2009. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2009 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    6. Peter Tillmann, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    7. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    9. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2009. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 15270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
    11. Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Thomas C. Chiang, 2017. "Surprises, sentiments, and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 1-28, July.
    12. Elmar Mertens, 2011. "Measuring the level and uncertainty of trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    14. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Bond positions, expectations, and the yield curve," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Chan R. Mang, 2014. "Uncertain Risk and Return in Bond Markets, I," 2014 Papers pma1706, Job Market Papers.
    18. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
    19. Eric Aldrich, 2012. "Trading Volume in General Equilibrium with Complete Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 36, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Taeyoung Doh, 2007. "What does the yield curve tell us about the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target?," Research Working Paper RWP 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    21. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    22. Doh, Taeyoung & Smith, A. Lee, 2022. "A new approach to integrating expectations into VAR models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 24-43.
    23. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    140. Belaygorod, Anatoliy & Dueker, Michael, 2009. "Indeterminacy, change points and the price puzzle in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 624-648, March.

  20. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "Idiosyncratic risk and the equity premium: evidence from the consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 309-334, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Estimating and testing rational expectations models when the trend specification is uncertain," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1485-1525, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    2. Ferroni, Filippo, 2009. "Trend agnostic one step estimation of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 14550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Alasdair Scott & Jana Eklund, 2008. "Breaks in DSGE models," 2008 Meeting Papers 657, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes & Fabio Verona, 2019. "Assessing U.S. Aggregate Fluctuations Across Time and Frequencies," Working Paper 19-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Canova, Fabio, 2014. "Bridging DSGE models and the raw data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Gunnar Bårdsen & Luca Fanelli, 2015. "Frequentist Evaluation of Small DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 307-322, July.
    7. Varang Wiriyawit, 2014. "Trend Mis-specifications and Estimated Policy Implications in DSGE Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-615, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    8. Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Junjie Guo, 2022. "Generalized band spectrum estimation with an application to the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1055-1078, August.
    9. Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Bo Yang, 2023. "Partial dollarization and financial frictions in emerging economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 609-651, May.
    10. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2011. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 73-98, March.
    11. Luca Fanelli, 2009. "Estimation of quasi-rational DSGE monetary models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 3, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    12. Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo, 2021. "DSGE models, detrending, and the method of moments," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 67-99, January.
    13. Blasques, Francisco & Duplinskiy, Artem, 2018. "Penalized indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 34-54.
    14. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2013. "What does a Monetary Policy Shock Do? An International Analysis with Multiple Filters," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 759-784, October.
    15. MAO TAKONGMO, Charles Olivier, 2019. "Keynesian Models, Detrending, and the Method of Moments," MPRA Paper 91709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Saijo, Hikaru, 2013. "Estimating DSGE models using seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 22-35.
    17. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Estimation of DSGE models when the data are persistent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 325-340, April.
    18. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.
    19. Silvio Michael de Azevedo Costa, 2016. "Structural Trends and Cycles in a DSGE Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 434, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

  23. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "A Frequency Decomposition of Approximation Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 473-503, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Alternative definitions of the business cycle and their implications for business cycle models: A reply to Torben Mark Pederson," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1103-1107, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 2006. "Stock Prices, Output and the Monetary Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 147-173, April.
    3. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2005. "Flexibility in inflation targeting, financial markets and macroeconomic stability," MPRA Paper 13864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
    5. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Post-Print hal-03530128, HAL.
    6. Wagner, Helmut & Kißmer, Friedrich & Funke, Norbert, 2006. "International Lessons for the Property Price Boom in South Africa," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 27, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    7. Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.
    8. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047, July.
    9. Andrew J. Filardo, 2001. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : some experimental results," Research Working Paper RWP 01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. F Alexandre & P Bacao, 2006. "Investment and Non-fundamental Movements in Asset Prices: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 65-95, March.
    11. Grégory Levieuge, 2005. "Politique monétaire et prix d'actifs," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 317-355.
    12. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Osborne, Jenny, 2005. "Housing in the Euro Area Twelve Markets One Money," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 87-114, October.
    14. Dor, Eric & Durré, Alain, 1999. "Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. Mr. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2001/184, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Eric DOR & Alain DURRE, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the New Economy : Between Supply Shock and Financial Bubble," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2002028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    17. Gadi Barlevy, 2015. "Bubbles and Fools," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II.
    18. Angelos Kanas & Yue Ma, 2004. "Intrinsic bubbles revisited: evidence from nonlinear cointegration and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 237-250.
    19. Helmut Wagner & Wolfram Berger, 2004. "Globalization, Financial Volatility and Monetary Policy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 163-184, June.
    20. J. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Marcelo Ochoa C., 2007. "Política Monetaria, Precios de Activos y Estabilidad Financiera: Una Revisión de la Literatura," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 115-127, December.
    21. d'Amico, Stefania & Mira Farka, 2003. "The Fed and Stock Market: A Proxy and Instrumental Variable Identification," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 52, Royal Economic Society.
    22. Pedro Bacao & Fernando Alexandre, 2003. "Equity Prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 290, Society for Computational Economics.
    23. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Estimating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy reaction function," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 169-183.
    24. Timothy Bianco & Ryan Eiben & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong & Jing Wang, 2011. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Working Papers (Old Series) 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    25. Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2003. "Règle du taux d’intérêt optimale, prix des actions et taux d’inflation anticipé : une étude de la stabilité macroéconomique," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 0(4), pages 115-140, December.
    26. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    27. Gerhard Illing, 2001. "Financial Fragility, Bubbles and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 449, CESifo.
    28. Illing, Gerhard, . "Financial Fragility, Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Chapters in Economics,, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    29. Eric Tymoigne, 2006. "Asset Prices, Financial Fragility, and Central Banking," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_456, Levy Economics Institute.
    30. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior," Working Papers 2000-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    31. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2003. "Les prix des actifs et la stratégie de politique monétaire de la BCE [Asset prices and the monetary policy strastegy of the ECB]," MPRA Paper 13833, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2003.
    32. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Estimating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy reaction function," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 169-183.
    33. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1999. "Commentary : monetary policy and asset market volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 129-135.
    34. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "Economic theory and asset bubbles," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 31(Q III), pages 44-59.
    35. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Brousseau, Vincent & Detken, Carsten, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 89, European Central Bank.

  26. Timothy Cogley & Heather Royer, 1998. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and asset markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun26.

    Cited by:

    1. Yanick Desnoyers, 2001. "L'effet de la richesse sur la consommation aux États-Unis," Staff Working Papers 01-14, Bank of Canada.
    2. Ramon Moreno & Marjorie Santos, 2008. "Pension systems in EMEs: implications for capital flows and financial markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 45-69, Bank for International Settlements.

  27. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "What is the optimal rate of inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep19.

    Cited by:

    1. Matt Klaeffling & Víctor López Pérez, 2003. "Inflation Targets and the Liquidity Trap," Working Papers wp2003_0309, CEMFI.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.

  28. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21.

    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Cogley & Desiree Schaan, 1995. "Using consumption to track movements in trend GDP," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep1.
    2. Pierre St-Amant & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    3. Robert Dittmar & Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2004. "Stochastic capital depreciation and the comovement of hours and productivity," Working Papers 2002-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    5. Ahsan ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2017. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 193-219.
    6. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    7. René Lalonde, 1998. "Le PIB potentiel des États-Unis et ses déterminants : la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre et le taux d'activité," Staff Working Papers 98-13, Bank of Canada.
    8. Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    9. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
    10. Lamey, L. & Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Steenkamp, J-B.E.M., 2005. "The Impact of Business-Cycle Fluctuations on Private-Label Share," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-061-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    11. Döpke, Jörg & Chagny, Odile, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Sarvary, M. & Parker, P.M., 2003. "Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution Of Consumer Durables Over The Business Cycle," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-046-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    13. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
    14. Ozlale, Umit, 2003. "Price stability vs. output stability: tales of federal reserve administrations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1595-1610, July.
    15. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 1998. "A Discussion of the Reliability of Results Obtained with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," Staff Working Papers 98-4, Bank of Canada.
    16. Ozbek, Levent & Ozlale, Umit, 2005. "Employing the extended Kalman filter in measuring the output gap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1611-1622, September.
    17. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.

  29. Timothy Cogley, 1996. "Why do stock prices sometimes fall in response to good economic news?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec13.

    Cited by:

    1. John B. Carlson & Kevin H. Sargent, 1997. "The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-12.
    2. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.

  30. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Nason, James M & Cogley, Timothy, 1994. "Testing the Implications of Long-Run Neutrality for Monetary Business Cycle Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 37-70, Suppl. De.

    Cited by:

    1. Atsushi Inoue & Mototsugu Shintani, 2018. "Quasi‐Bayesian model selection," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1265-1297, November.
    2. James M. Nason & George A. Slotsve, 2004. "Along the New Keynesian Phillips curve with nominal and real rigidities," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. S. Boragan Aruoba & Luigi Bocola & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Working Papers 13-47, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Kurmann, André, 2010. "The business cycle implications of reciprocity in labor relations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 837-850, October.
    6. Alfonso Novales, 2002. "The Role of Simulation Methods in Macroeconomics," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0227, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    7. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Kirkby, Robert, 2016. "Inflation and the growth rate of money in the long run and the short run," Working Paper Series 19418, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    9. Kano, Takashi & 加納, 隆 & Nason, James M., 2012. "Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models," Discussion Papers 2012-09, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. James M. Nason & Takashi Kano, 2004. "Business Cycle Implications of Habit Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Fabio Canova & Eva Ortega, 1996. "Testing calibrated general equilibrium models," Economics Working Papers 166, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Menner, Martin, 2007. "The role of search frictions for output and inflation dynamics: a Bayesian assessment," UC3M Working papers. Economics we076235, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    14. S. Meral Cakici, 2011. "Default Risk Premium and Aggregate Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1131, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf & Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 491, European Central Bank.
    16. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David, 2013. "An empirical test of exogenous versus endogenous growth models for the G-7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 262-272.
    17. Oladunni, Sunday, 2019. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Oil-exporting Small Open Economies: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Christian Calmes & Frederic Dufourt, 2000. "Nominal Dynamics in Expected Market-Clearing Models," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 126, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    19. Dupor, Bill & Han, Jing & Tsai, Yi-Chan, 2009. "What do technology shocks tell us about the New Keynesian paradigm?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 560-569, May.
    20. Shawn A Osell, 2018. "Comparative Monetary Tools: Open Market Operations and Interest on Reserves," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 459-471.
    21. Frédéric Karamé, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Post-Print hal-02296101, HAL.
    22. Hyeon-Seung Huh, 2013. "A Monte Carlo test for the identifying assumptions of the Blanchard and Quah (1989) model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 601-605, April.
    23. Menner, Martin, 2006. "Monetary propagation in search-theoretic monetary models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we066426, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    24. Patrick Minford & Konstantinos Theodoridis & David Meenagh, 2009. "Testing a Model of the UK by the Method of Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-291, April.
    25. Bamadev Paudel, 2017. "Alleviating Poverty through Job Creation: Quantity Equation of Money may Come into Play," Journal of Development Innovations, KarmaQuest International, vol. 1(1), pages 84-113, February.
    26. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    27. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    28. Menner, Martin, 2005. "A search-theoretic monetary business cycle model with capital formation," UC3M Working papers. Economics we056634, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    29. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Comparison of misspecified calibrated models: The minimum distance approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 131-138.
    30. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
    31. Cakici, S. Meral, 2011. "Financial integration and business cycles in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1280-1302.
    32. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2010. "DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment," MPRA Paper 24509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "The effect of monetary policy on residential and structures investment under differential project planning and completion times," International Finance Discussion Papers 671, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  33. Timothy Cogley, 1993. "Adapting to instability in money demand: forecasting money growth with a time-varying parameter model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 35-41.

    Cited by:

    1. Antipin, Jan-Erik & Boumediene, Farid Jimmy & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Working Papers 126, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Vilasuso, Jon, 1999. "The Liquidity Effect and the Operating Procedure of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 443-461, July.

  34. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1993. "Impulse dynamics and propagation mechanisms in a real business cycle model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 77-81.

    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Wenying & Kam, Timothy & Vahid, Farshid, 2017. "On weak identification in structural VARMA models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1-6.
    2. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhang, Haiping, 2006. "Financial frictions, capital reallocation, and aggregate fluctuations," ZEI Working Papers B 03-2006, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    3. Nigar Hashimzade & Salvador Ortigueira, 2004. "Endogenous Business Cycle With Search In The Labour Market," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 161, Royal Economic Society.
    4. Yao, Wenying & Kam, Timothy & Vahid, Farshid, 2014. "VAR(MA), what is it good for? more bad news for reduced-form estimation and inference," Working Papers 2014-14, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," LEM Papers Series 2016/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Working Papers hal-04141079, HAL.
    7. Aizenman Joshua & Pasricha Gurnain K., 2011. "The Net Fiscal Expenditure Stimulus in the US, 2008-9: Less than What You Might Think, and Less than the Fiscal Stimuli of Most OECD Countries," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-6, June.
    8. G. Fagiolo & A. Roventini, 2009. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 6.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is Different ... and Complex! The Case for Agent-Based Macroeconomics," LEM Papers Series 2019/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    11. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    12. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    13. Oleg Korenok & Norman R. Swanson, 2007. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1481-1508, September.
    14. Bénassy, Jean-Pascal, 2002. "Conférence François-Albert Angers (2002)," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(4), pages 423-457, Décembre.
    15. David R.F. Love & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2004. "Anticipation and Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 0703, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2007.
    16. Jean-Pascal Bénassy, 2006. "Dynamic models with non clearing markets," Working Papers halshs-00590433, HAL.
    17. Kato, Ryo, 2006. "Liquidity, infinite horizons and macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1105-1130, July.
    18. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. David R.F. Love, 2009. "Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 0908, Brock University, Department of Economics.
    20. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    21. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    22. Zhang, Haiping, 2005. "Limited Pledgeability, Asset Prices, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 11/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    23. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank.
    24. Luo Yulei & Young Eric R, 2009. "Rational Inattention and Aggregate Fluctuations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, April.
    25. Cook, David, 2001. "Time to enter and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1241-1261, August.
    26. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1996. "Monopolistic competition, increasing returns to specialization and output persistence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 187-191, August.

  35. Timothy Cogley, 1993. "Interpreting the term structure of interest rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr16.

    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Cogley, 1993. "Monetary policy and long-term real interest rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec3.

  36. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1991. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on integrated time series," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.

    Cited by:

    1. Kennedy, James E., 1998. "An Analysis of Time-Series Estimates of Capacity Utilization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 169-187, January.
    2. Andrés, Javier & Fatás, Antonio & Domenech, Rafael, 2004. "The Stabilizing Role of Government Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 4384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories," Staff Report 168, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Andrle, Michal, 2008. "The Role of Trends and Detrending in DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 13289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. João Valle e Azevedo, 2002. "Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement Within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999. A Frequency Domain Approach," Working Papers w200205, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Nicholas APERGIS, 1996. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices: Evidence From Seven Developing Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 34(2), pages 204-211, June.
    8. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
    9. Lindsay Tedds, 1998. "What goes up must come down (but not necessarily at the same rate): Testing for asymmetry in New Zealand time series," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 41-55.
    10. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience," MPRA Paper 35748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Valle e Azevedo, João, 2007. "Interpretation of the Effects of Filtering Integrated Time Series," MPRA Paper 6574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Semmler, Will & Gong, Gang, 1996. "Estimating parameters of real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 301-325, September.
    13. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
    14. David E. A. Giles, 1997. "Testing for Asymmetry in the Measured and Underground Business Cycles in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 225-232, September.

  37. Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-518, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Comment on "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 139-147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jan Čapek, 2016. "Structural Changes in the Czech Economy: A DSGE Model Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 37-52.
    2. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    3. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.

  2. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II US Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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