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Managing Disinflation under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Mewael F. Tesfaselassie
  • Eric Schaling

Abstract

In this paper we analyze disinflation policy when a central bank has imperfect information about private sector inflation expectations but learns about them from economic outcomes, which are in part the result of the disinflation policy. The form of uncertainty is manifested as uncertainty about the effect of past disinflation policy on current output gap. Thus current as well as past policy actions matter for output gap determination. We derive the optimal policy under learning (DOP) and compare it two limiting cases -- certainty equivalence policy (CEP) and cautionary policy (CP). It turns out that under the DOP inflation stay between the levels implied by the CEP and the CP. A novel result is that this holds irrespective of the initial level of inflation. Moreover, while at high levels of inherited inflation the DOP moves closer to the CEP, at low levels of inherited inflation the DOP resembles the CP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling, 2008. "Managing Disinflation under Uncertainty," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0812, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0812
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    4. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Irineu da Silva Rodrigues Júnior & Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Linican Monteiro Batista, 2024. "Effects of monetary policy credibility and the open economy trilemma on monetary policy efficiency," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1236-1258, April.
    5. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2023. "Effects of Sustainable Monetary and Fiscal Policy on FDI Inflows to EMDE Countries," Working Papers Series 575, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2024. "Are prudent monetary and fiscal policy drivers of FDI inflows?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    7. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    8. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2008. "Central bank learning and monetary policy," Kiel Working Papers 1444, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; Inflation Expectations; Disinflation Policy; Separation Principle; Kalman Filter; Optimal Control.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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