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The Financial Accelerator under Learning and the Role of Monetary Policy

In: Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Caputo

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Juan Pablo Medina

    (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Claudio Soto

    (Banco Central de Chile)

Abstract

Financial frictions have been shown to play an important role amplifying business cycles fluctuations. In this paper we show that the financial accelerator mechanism, analyzed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilrchrist (1999), combined with adaptive learning can amplify business cycle fluctuations significantly as the balance sheet channel interacts with the presence of endogenous asset price “bubbles”. These large business cycle fluctuations are amplified in a non-linear way by the size of the shocks and by the degree of financial fragility in the economy determined by its leverage. Our preliminary results indicate that even in the presence of endogenous bubbles, responding aggressively to inflation reduces output and inflation volatility. If the central bank adjusts its policy instrument in response to asset price fluctuations, it may reduce output volatility and even inflation volatility in the short run. However, that monetary policy conduct leads to a surge in inflation several periods after the shocks. A policy that aggressively responds to changes in asset prices may marginally reduce output volatility with respect to a policy that reacts aggressively to inflation, but also at the cost of generating inflationary pressures.
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Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Caputo & Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2011. "The Financial Accelerator under Learning and the Role of Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 7, pages 185-218, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v16c07pp185-218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. André, Marine Charlotte & Dai, Meixing, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 281-296.
    2. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Stephen J. Cole, 2020. "The Limits of Central Bank forward Guidance under Learning," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 199-250, September.
    4. Paul Kitney, 2016. "Financial factors and monetary policy: Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium," CAMA Working Papers 2016-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Winkler, Fabian, 2020. "The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.
    6. repec:syd:wpaper:2123/8187 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia, 2011. "Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 1, pages 001-021, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Rychalovska, Yuliya, 2016. "The implications of financial frictions and imperfect knowledge in the estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 259-282.

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