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Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality

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  • Bjarni G. Einarsson

Abstract

The paper presents a method for online evaluation of the optimality of the current stance of monetary policy given the most up to date data available. The framework combines estimates of the causal effects of monetary policy tools on inflation and the unemployment gap with forecasts for these target variables. The forecasts are generated with a nowcasting model, incorporating new data as it becomes available, while using entropy tilting to anchor the long end of the forecast at long run survey expectations. In a retrospective analysis of the Fed's monetary policy decisions in the lead up to the Great Recession the paper finds rejections of the optimality of the policy stance as early as the beginning of February 2008. This early detection stems from the timely nowcasting of the deteriorating unemployment outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2024. "Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality," Economics wp95, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    • Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp95
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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