IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/urv/wpaper/2072-211795.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Lovcha, Yuliya
  • Pérez Laborda, Àlex

Abstract

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Lovcha, Yuliya & Pérez Laborda, Àlex, 2013. "A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2072/211795, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/211795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2072/211795
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bos, Charles S. & Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 2002. "Inflation, forecast intervals and long memory regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 243-264.
    2. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Testing and forecasting the degree of integration in the US inflation rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 173-187.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
    5. Hosoya, Yuzo, 1996. "The quasi-likelihood approach to statistical inference on multiple time-series with long-range dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 217-236, July.
    6. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    8. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    9. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2007. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 1-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
    12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    13. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    15. Siem Jan Koopman & Soon Yip Wong, 2011. "Kalman filtering and smoothing for model‐based signal extraction that depend on time‐varying spectra," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 147-167, January.
    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    17. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    18. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    19. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2015. "The Hours Worked–Productivity Puzzle: Identification In A Fractional Integration Setting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(7), pages 1593-1621, October.
    20. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    22. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
    23. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    24. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    25. Murray, Christian & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David, 2008. "Inflation Persistence and the Taylor Principle," MPRA Paper 11353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) & Rey, Aleksey (Рей, Алексей) & Radchenko, Darya (Радченко, Дарья), 2018. "Investigation of the Relationship between the Intensity of International Trade and the Volatility of Paired Exchange Rates of the Russian Federation and its Trading Partners [Исследование Взаимосвя," Working Papers 061823, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Forecasting US Inflation Using a VARFIMA Model," Working Papers 15-12, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, inflation persistence, and long memory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-127.
    2. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    3. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2017. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-62.
    4. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
    5. Martínez-García Enrique, 2018. "Modeling time-variation over the business cycle (1960–2017): an international perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-25, December.
    6. Chang‐Jin Kim & Pym Manopimoke & Charles R. Nelson, 2014. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 253-266, March.
    7. Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Champagne, Julien & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2018. "Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-87.
    9. Necati Tekatli, 2007. "Understanding Sources of the Change in International Business Cycles," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 731.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    10. Fabio Canova & Fernando J. Pérez Forero, 2012. "Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs," Economics Working Papers 1321, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Pavon-Prado, David, 2019. "Have we been measuring monetary policy correctly? Analysing the Federal Reserve’s policies over the last century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 28342, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    12. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
    13. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2016. "The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 78-93.
    18. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
    19. Mojon, Benoît, 2008. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 487-497, April.
    20. Giovanni Nicolo, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política monetària; Anàlisi de sèries temporals; Inflació; 338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió; control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/211795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ariadna Casals (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deurves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.