IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v10y2022i5p101-d804393.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Money Supply and Inflation after COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Orkideh Gharehgozli

    (Department of Economics, Feliciano School of Business, Montclair State University, 1 Normal Avenue, Montclair, NJ 07043, USA)

  • Sunhyung Lee

    (Department of Economics, Feliciano School of Business, Montclair State University, 1 Normal Avenue, Montclair, NJ 07043, USA)

Abstract

The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 5.2 percent on January 2022, which is the highest rate of increase since 40 years ago. Our estimates show that the annualized quarterly core PCE prices could reach 5.45% in the second quarter of 2022 and are as high as 8.57% in a longer time horizon unless corrected with restrictive monetary policies. Thus, the inflation shock since COVID-19 is not transitory, but it is persistent. As economists expect the Federal Reserve to tighten the money supply in March 2022, the insufficient policy responses may be attributed to a failure to incorporate a unique macroeconomic shock to unemployment during the pandemic. We propose a modified vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine structural shocks after COVID-19, and our proposed model performs well in forecasting future price levels in times of a pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Orkideh Gharehgozli & Sunhyung Lee, 2022. "Money Supply and Inflation after COVID-19," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:5:p:101-:d:804393
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/5/101/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/5/101/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 573-577, May.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 2021. "The Treasury Market in Spring 2020 and the Response of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 19-47.
    6. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
    7. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
    8. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2022. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 596-612.
    9. Edesiri Godsday Okoro, 2014. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) Approach," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(1), pages 70-82, February.
    10. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2020. "How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020," NBER Working Papers 27771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Richard H. Clarida & Burcu Duygan-Bump & Chiara Scotti, 2021. "The COVID-19 Crisis and the Federal Reserve's Policy Response," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1974. "The quantity theory of money : its historical evolution and role in policy debates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 60(May), pages 2-19.
    13. Serena Ng, 2021. "Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 29060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Mehmet Mucuk & Sümeyra Evren, 2023. "What Drives Inflation in High-inflation Countries? Evidence from Haiti, Sudan, Türkiye and Zambia," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(3), pages 238-266.
    3. Zi Ning Zhu & Charles Ramendran SPR & Lai Soon Wong & Rosa Fernandez Alcala & Elia Garcia-Marti, 2024. "The Influence of Four-Box Business Model on Employee Engagement in Post-COVID-19: Company Performance as the Moderator," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 13309-13333, September.
    4. Olli-Pekka Hilmola, 2022. "In the Midst of the Coronavirus and Geopolitical Crises—Inventory Efficiency and Challenges Faced in Finland," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Rogna, Marco, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334549, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    6. Ali Zeb & Niu Shuhai & Obaid Ullah, 2024. "Inflationary dynamics under fiscal and monetary asymmetries: a nonlinear investigation in Pakistan," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(12), pages 1-30, December.
    7. Edoardo Beretta & Doris Neuberger, 2023. "Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 321-330.
    8. Mehmet Mucuk & Sümeyra Evren, . "What Drives Inflation in High-inflation Countries? Evidence from Haiti, Sudan, Turkey and Zambia," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 0.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2023. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Face of Uncertainty: The Real Macroeconomic Impact of a Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa during High and Low Uncertainty States," Working Papers 202331, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2023. "Comparing stochastic volatility specifications for large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1419-1446.
    4. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    5. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    6. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    7. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    8. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 234-259, June.
    9. Rybacki, Jakub & Gniazdowski, Michał, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Poland: Lessons From the COVID-19 Outbreak," MPRA Paper 107682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Britta Gehrke & Brigitte Hochmuth, 2021. "Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 144-183, January.
    11. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    12. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2023. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-47, January.
    13. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2017. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-07, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    14. Fabrizio Iacone & Luca Rossini & Andrea Viselli, 2024. "Comparing predictive ability in presence of instability over a very short time," Papers 2405.11954, arXiv.org.
    15. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    16. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut & Trienens, Lasse, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302351, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    17. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    18. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-282.
    20. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:5:p:101-:d:804393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.